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UK 2y Yield Plumbs New Multi-Month Low Pre-BoE

BONDS
  • Core EGBs are firmer headed into the NY crossover, buoyed by the QRA-inspired Treasury rally yesterday, and the supportive tone from the Fed decision, at which the Fed chair acknowledged the tightening of financial conditions and its follow through impact on monetary policy.
  • The follow-through theme in Bund futures is evident in the show above the 130.00 handle overnight, which came amid heavy volumes: Bunds traded ~34k ahead of the cash open, with signs of strong activity across the ERZ3/ERH4 spread helping prop up participation. The spread was bought in 11.3k outright, having printed its lowest level since mid-June Yesterday.
  • The UK curve sits lower, pressing the front-end to fresh multi-month lows. The 2y yield has slipped to 4.70%, the lowest level since June, as focus turns to the BoE decision at 1200GMT. Market reaction will likely hinge on the vote split among the MPC, with markets on watch for a potential minority vote for a rate cut as soon as today's decision. Nonetheless, markets expect a 6-3 vote for unchanged rates at 5.25% with largely unchanged guidance.
  • The weekly US jobless claims data, September factory orders and the final durable goods orders mark the data highlights for the day. BoE's Bailey holds a post-decision press conference, with speeches also scheduled from Fed's Paese and ECB's Schnabel.
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