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UK Activity Data Due at 7:00 BST

UK DATA
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  • UK activity data, including the first estimate of the quarterly GDP for Q1 as well as monthly GDP and it's components for March, is due for release at 7:00BST.
  • In terms of quarterly GDP, the Bloomberg consensus of +0.4% Q/Q (the strongest growth in 2 years) has a downside skew amongst analysts ranging from +0.4% Q/Q to +0.1% Q/Q. The BOE's May MPR forecast see a +0.35% Q/Q print. Either would see the UK recovering from its technical recession with two quarters of negative growth.
  • Looking at the monthly print, the Bloomberg median is +0.1% M/M for March with estimates ranging from -0.2% to +0.2%, following February's print of +0.1% M/M and January's +0.3% M/M.
  • In regards to the main subcomponents (Services, Industrial Production, Construction) - consensus looks for construction output to rise +0.5% M/M after last month's -1.9% M/M contraction. Whilst Bloomberg's median for Services is flat M/M, and Industrial Production is forecast to contract 0.5% M/M although analysts expectations are mixed ranging from -0.8% M/M to +0.5%.
  • In terms of market reaction we expect a relatively muted reaction (particularly compared to either inflation or labour market data). Today's data, even with a large surprise, is unlikely to be the catalyst for any MPC member to decide whether to change their vote at the June MPC meeting. Furthermore, even a large surprise would be unlikely to have big impacts on the stickiness of services inflation or wage growth.
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  • UK activity data, including the first estimate of the quarterly GDP for Q1 as well as monthly GDP and it's components for March, is due for release at 7:00BST.
  • In terms of quarterly GDP, the Bloomberg consensus of +0.4% Q/Q (the strongest growth in 2 years) has a downside skew amongst analysts ranging from +0.4% Q/Q to +0.1% Q/Q. The BOE's May MPR forecast see a +0.35% Q/Q print. Either would see the UK recovering from its technical recession with two quarters of negative growth.
  • Looking at the monthly print, the Bloomberg median is +0.1% M/M for March with estimates ranging from -0.2% to +0.2%, following February's print of +0.1% M/M and January's +0.3% M/M.
  • In regards to the main subcomponents (Services, Industrial Production, Construction) - consensus looks for construction output to rise +0.5% M/M after last month's -1.9% M/M contraction. Whilst Bloomberg's median for Services is flat M/M, and Industrial Production is forecast to contract 0.5% M/M although analysts expectations are mixed ranging from -0.8% M/M to +0.5%.
  • In terms of market reaction we expect a relatively muted reaction (particularly compared to either inflation or labour market data). Today's data, even with a large surprise, is unlikely to be the catalyst for any MPC member to decide whether to change their vote at the June MPC meeting. Furthermore, even a large surprise would be unlikely to have big impacts on the stickiness of services inflation or wage growth.