MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 4

MNI BRIEF: China Has Four Months To Negotiate EU EV Agreement

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: ISM Choppiness Not A Clear Signal For Worry

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY98 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1305 Thurs; -0.79% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

Factory Orders Decline as Non-EU Orders Dip

DMP survey increases probability of August cut

MNI: UK JUNE CONSTRUCTION PMI 52.2 (FCST: 54.0); MAY 54.7

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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UK Activity Data Due at 7:00 BST

UK DATA
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  • UK activity data, including monthly GDP and it's components for April, are due for release at 7:00BST.
  • Looking at the monthly print, the Bloomberg median is -0.1% M/M for April with estimates ranging from -0.3% to +0.2%, following March's higher than expected print of +0.4% M/M.
  • In regards to the main subcomponents (Services, Industrial Production, Construction) - consensus looks for both Services and Industrial Production to come in at -0.1% M/M. Construction output is expected to remain flat on the month after last month's 0.4% M/M contraction, although construction PMI increased to 53 in April.
  • The services M/M forecast has estimates ranging from -0.4% to 0.1%. In contrast, analyst expectations for IP are skewed downwards with estimates ranging from -0.4% to 0.3%, likely to be affected by bad weather.
  • In terms of market reaction we expect a relatively muted reaction (particularly compared to either inflation or labour market data). Today's data, even with a large surprise, is unlikely to be the catalyst for any MPC member to decide whether to change their vote at the June MPC meeting, although tepid growth will be in-line with the bank's quarterly staff projection of +0.24% for Q2.
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  • UK activity data, including monthly GDP and it's components for April, are due for release at 7:00BST.
  • Looking at the monthly print, the Bloomberg median is -0.1% M/M for April with estimates ranging from -0.3% to +0.2%, following March's higher than expected print of +0.4% M/M.
  • In regards to the main subcomponents (Services, Industrial Production, Construction) - consensus looks for both Services and Industrial Production to come in at -0.1% M/M. Construction output is expected to remain flat on the month after last month's 0.4% M/M contraction, although construction PMI increased to 53 in April.
  • The services M/M forecast has estimates ranging from -0.4% to 0.1%. In contrast, analyst expectations for IP are skewed downwards with estimates ranging from -0.4% to 0.3%, likely to be affected by bad weather.
  • In terms of market reaction we expect a relatively muted reaction (particularly compared to either inflation or labour market data). Today's data, even with a large surprise, is unlikely to be the catalyst for any MPC member to decide whether to change their vote at the June MPC meeting, although tepid growth will be in-line with the bank's quarterly staff projection of +0.24% for Q2.