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UK Activity Data Due at 7:00 BST

UK DATA
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  • The first estimate of Q2 quarterly GDP as well as monthly activity data for June, are due for release at 7:00BST.
  • In terms of quarterly GDP, the Bloomberg consensus is 0.6% Q/Q (with analysts ranging from 0.5% to 0.7%), a tenth below the BOE's August MPR forecast of 0.7% Q/Q.
  • In contrast the Bloomberg median for the monthly GDP is 0.0% M/M for June with most estimates ranging from -0.2% to 0.3%, significantly weaker than May's firmer than expected reading of 0.4%. There is a potential upside risk to this from the Euro 2024 football tournament, although this is unlikely to outweigh downside pressure from the relatively cooler June weather on output.
  • Looking at the three main subcomponents; both services and industrial production are forecast to see a small rise of 0.1% M/M (vs 0.3% and 0.4% in May) whilst construction output is forecast to fall 0.4% M/M in June after a firm 1.9% rise last month (although looking at the analyst estimate ranging for construction, there is a clear divergence in views with estimates ranges from -0.8% to 0.5%).
  • UK June PMIs softened slightly across the board with the composite PMI reaching its lowest level year to date albeit still in expansion. This in combination with weak retail sales data in June (-1.9% M/M) points to subdued output across the main components relative to May.
  • Today's data is unlikely to be the catalyst for any MPC member to decide whether to change their vote at the September MPC meeting but there are still two-way risks for the market reaction.
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  • The first estimate of Q2 quarterly GDP as well as monthly activity data for June, are due for release at 7:00BST.
  • In terms of quarterly GDP, the Bloomberg consensus is 0.6% Q/Q (with analysts ranging from 0.5% to 0.7%), a tenth below the BOE's August MPR forecast of 0.7% Q/Q.
  • In contrast the Bloomberg median for the monthly GDP is 0.0% M/M for June with most estimates ranging from -0.2% to 0.3%, significantly weaker than May's firmer than expected reading of 0.4%. There is a potential upside risk to this from the Euro 2024 football tournament, although this is unlikely to outweigh downside pressure from the relatively cooler June weather on output.
  • Looking at the three main subcomponents; both services and industrial production are forecast to see a small rise of 0.1% M/M (vs 0.3% and 0.4% in May) whilst construction output is forecast to fall 0.4% M/M in June after a firm 1.9% rise last month (although looking at the analyst estimate ranging for construction, there is a clear divergence in views with estimates ranges from -0.8% to 0.5%).
  • UK June PMIs softened slightly across the board with the composite PMI reaching its lowest level year to date albeit still in expansion. This in combination with weak retail sales data in June (-1.9% M/M) points to subdued output across the main components relative to May.
  • Today's data is unlikely to be the catalyst for any MPC member to decide whether to change their vote at the September MPC meeting but there are still two-way risks for the market reaction.