UK Analysis: July-Aug Employment, Real Wages Fall>

-UK July-Sept Employment -14,000; employment rate 75.0%

-UK July-Sept Real Regular Earnings -0.4% 3m/year-ago vs -0.2% June-Aug

-UK July-Sept LFS Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3% June-Aug

     By Laurie Laird and David Robinson 

     London (MNI) - UK employment fell for the first time in almost a 

year, while real wages dipped deeper into negative territory, despite 

the unemployment rate steadying at its lowest rate since 1975. 

     Employment fell by 14,000 to 32.06 million, the first decline since 

the three months to October of 2016. That took the employment rate down 

to 75.0%, from 75.1% in the three months to August. 

     Joblessness, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, steadied at 

4.3% between July and September, matching the lowest level of 

unemployment since the three months to June of 1975. 

     The outturn was in line with the 4.3% jobless rate forecast of Bank 

of England staff for the three months to September, as published in the 

November Quarterly Inflation report. 

     But the steady fall in joblessness has failed to translate into 

higher earnings, with real wages declining again in the latest three 

months, after dipping into negative territory earlier this year. 

     Total weekly earnings increased by an annual pace of 2.2% in the 

three months to September, down from a 2.2% gain in the previous three 

months. 

     But with inflation touching 3.0% in September, real wages, 

including bonuses, actually declined by 0.4% in the latest period. 

     In the month of September, total earnings rose by an annual rate of 

2.6%, but real wages declined by 0.1% over the same month of 2016. 

     Excluding bonuses, regular earnings, before adjusting for 

inflation, rose at an annual pace of 2.2% in the three months to 

September, down from 2.3% in the previous period. Price-adjusted regular 

earnings fell by 0.5% over the same period a year earlier. 

     Regular earnings rose by an annual rate of 2.2% in the month of 

September, but fell by an annual rate of 0.6% in real terms. 

     Unemployment fell by 59,000 between July and September, to 1.42 

million, as inactivity rose by 117,000 to 8.88 million, lifting the 

inactivity rate by 0.3 percentage points to 21.6%. 

     The jobless rate steadied at 4.2% in the month of September, 

according to experimental data, unchanged from August. 

     The more up-to-date claimant count rose by 1,100 in October, 

leaving the associated unemployment rate at 2.3%, unchanged from 

September. 

     The claimant count for September was revised to show a 2,600 rise, 

compared to the 1,700 gain reported last month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

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