UK Analysis: Jun-Aug Real Wages Fall; Jobless Rate At 4.3%>

-UK June-Aug Real Total Earnings -0.3% 3m/year-ago vs -0.3% May-July

-UK June-Aug LFS Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3% May-July

-UK June-Aug Employment +94,000; employment rate 75.1%

By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham

     London (MNI) - UK earnings growth continued to decline in 

inflation-adjusted terms for the sixth consecutive three-month period, 

even as unemployment steadied at its lowest level in over four decades. 

     Joblessness, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, steadied at 

4.3% between June and August, in line with the MNI median forecast. 

That's unchanged from the three months to July and matches the lowest 

level of unemployment since the three months to June of 1975. 

     The outturn fell short of the 4.4% jobless rate forecast of Bank of 

England staff for the three months to August, as published in the August 

Quarterly Inflation report. 

     But the steady fall in joblessness has failed to translate into 

higher earnings, with real wages declining in the latest three months, 

after dipping into negative territory earlier this year. 

     Total weekly earnings increased by an annual pace of 2.2% in the 

three months to August, slightly above the MNI median forecast of 2.1%, 

matching the upwardly-revised 2.2% gain in the previous three months. 

     But with inflation touching 2.9% in August, real wages, including 

bonuses, actually declined by 0.3% in the latest period. 

     In the month of August, total earnings rose by an annual rate of 

2.2%, but real wages declined by 0.5% over the same month of 2016. 

     Excluding bonuses, regular earnings, before adjusting for 

inflation, improved by an annual pace of 2.1% in the three months to 

July, above the MNI median of a 2.0% gain, down from 2.2% in the 

previous period. Price-adjusted regular earnings fell by 0.4% over the 

same period a year earlier. 

     Regular earnings rose by an annual rate of 2.2% in the month of 

August, but fell by an annual rate of 0.5% in real terms. 

     Employment rose by 94,000 to 32.10 million, below the median MNI 

forecast of an 122,000 jump, after a increase of 181,000 in the three 

months to July. That took the employment rate down to a 75.1% from a 

record-high of 75.3% in the three months to July. 

     The female unemployment rate steadied at an all-time low of 4.2%, 

matching the outturn for the three months to July, while the female 

activity rate hit 73.9%, just below the record high of 74.0% touched in 

the previous period. 

     Unemployment fell by 52,000 between June and August, to 1.44 

million, as inactivity declined by 17,000 to 8.81 million. 

     Employment was boosted by a large increase in self-employed 

workers, accounting for 57,000 of total new jobs between June and 

August, taking the number to self employed to 4.855 million, a 

joint-record-high 15.1% of all workers. 

     The jobless rate steadied at 4.4% in the month of August, according 

to experimental data, unchanged from July. 

     The more up-to-date claimant count rose by 1,700 in September, 

leaving the associated unemployment rate at 2.3%, unchanged from August. 

     The claimant count for August was revised to show a 200 loss, 

compared to the 2,800 fall reported last month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

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