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UK CPI data cements a 7-2 vote at today's MPC meeting

UK DATA
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  • We think yesterday's CPI data cements a 7-2 vote at tomorrow's MPC meeting to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%.
  • Services CPI was 0.42ppt above the May MPR forecast but headline CPI was only 0.05ppt above.
  • We don't think that today's data has breached the bar to change guidance at today's MPC meeting - but we are close so it can by no means be completely ruled out. We think any change would be a surprise to the market, and possibly see another aggressive retightening.
  • We look at the drivers in more detail and summarise 15 sellside analyst reviews.

For the full MNI BOE Preview click here.

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  • We think yesterday's CPI data cements a 7-2 vote at tomorrow's MPC meeting to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%.
  • Services CPI was 0.42ppt above the May MPR forecast but headline CPI was only 0.05ppt above.
  • We don't think that today's data has breached the bar to change guidance at today's MPC meeting - but we are close so it can by no means be completely ruled out. We think any change would be a surprise to the market, and possibly see another aggressive retightening.
  • We look at the drivers in more detail and summarise 15 sellside analyst reviews.

For the full MNI BOE Preview click here.