UK DATA
The November survey period for BRC-KPMG retail sales excluded Black Friday (which was included in the November 2023 data). It is therefore almost impossible to really decipher any signal from this release, with the press release noting that the "artificially weaker figures".
- The data showed that UK total retail sales in November fell 3.3% Y/Y (vs growth of 0.6% in October). Like-for-Like sales fell 3.4% Y/Y (vs 0.3% prior).
- Food sales rose 2.4% Y/Y in the three months to November (vs 2.9% prior), whilst Non-Food Sales fell 2.1% Y/Y (vs -0.1% prior) - the steepest fall since June 2024.
- Given the BRC follows the ONS calendar dates it is likely ONS November retail sales will also be weak, but conversely December sales which will include Black Friday will be artificially inflated (when compared to December 2023 which did not include Black Friday).
- We often prefer to compare the sum of November and December sales to the prior year for this reason, as they give a greater signal regarding the wider holiday period.
- Data covers: 27 October - 23 November 2024.
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