MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, October 11

MNI: GERMANY SEP FINAL HICP -0.1% M/M; +1.8% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY183.8 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0731 Fri; +3.03% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY94.2 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.0731 FRI VS 7.0742

MNI: GERMAN SEP CPI +1.6 % Y/Y

MNI: UK AUG TRADE BALANCE GBP -0.95BN

MNI: UK AUG CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT +0.4% MM, +1% 3M3M, +0.3% YY

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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UK DATA: GDP data broadly in line; no impact on monpol

UK DATA
CEEMEAData BulletBulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

Headline M/M GDP in line with consensus at +0.2%M/M in August with July data unrevised at flat (0.0%M/M).

  • Services grew again at +0.1%M/M (a little softer than the +0.2% expected). "Professional scientific and technical activities" was the biggest contributor to service growth. Note that there were falls in wholesale trade (ex vehicles) of -1.6%M/M, wholesale trade of vehicles -1.5%M/M which offset the +1.0%M/M increase in retail trade excluding these factors (leaving the total category -0.3%M/M).
  • IP was a bit stronger-than-expected at +0.5%M/M with July revised up a tenth to -0.7%M/M. However, there was an interesting shift in manufacturing with a rebound seen in transport (in line with the risks we flagged in the preview after stronger transport manufacturing seen in Germany and France in August after the very soft July). Manufacturing rose +1.1%M/M following -1.2%M/M in July (revised from -1.0%). This increased in manufacturing offset the slightly softer services print to see monthly GDP in line overall.
  • Construction was broadly in line with expectations (particularly given its volatile nature) at +0.4%M/M (+0.5% consensus).
  • No real impact in markets from these data. And given they are so close to expected values, no real impact for monpol from these either.
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Headline M/M GDP in line with consensus at +0.2%M/M in August with July data unrevised at flat (0.0%M/M).

  • Services grew again at +0.1%M/M (a little softer than the +0.2% expected). "Professional scientific and technical activities" was the biggest contributor to service growth. Note that there were falls in wholesale trade (ex vehicles) of -1.6%M/M, wholesale trade of vehicles -1.5%M/M which offset the +1.0%M/M increase in retail trade excluding these factors (leaving the total category -0.3%M/M).
  • IP was a bit stronger-than-expected at +0.5%M/M with July revised up a tenth to -0.7%M/M. However, there was an interesting shift in manufacturing with a rebound seen in transport (in line with the risks we flagged in the preview after stronger transport manufacturing seen in Germany and France in August after the very soft July). Manufacturing rose +1.1%M/M following -1.2%M/M in July (revised from -1.0%). This increased in manufacturing offset the slightly softer services print to see monthly GDP in line overall.
  • Construction was broadly in line with expectations (particularly given its volatile nature) at +0.4%M/M (+0.5% consensus).
  • No real impact in markets from these data. And given they are so close to expected values, no real impact for monpol from these either.