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UK DATA: Monthly Activity Data Due at 7:00 BST

UK DATA
  • Consensus looks for monthly GDP to see gradual growth in July, (consensus 0.2% M/M vs flat in June, with analysts ranging from 0.1% to 0.3%).
  • All three main GDP subcomponents are expected to rise in July (services, industrial production and construction). In particular, services output is forecast to see a rise of 0.2% M/M (vs a fall of 0.1% in June) likely due to a combination of stronger retail sales driven by discounting, a hospitality boost from European Championships and a smaller healthcare output drag as industrial strike action decreased in July.
  • Industrial production is estimated to increase 0.3% M/M (vs strong growth of 0.8% in June) with most analysts ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%.
  • Finally, construction output is forecast to again rise 0.5% M/M (vs 0.5% M/M prior), although analyst estimates are wide ranging from -0.2% to 0.8% - there is downside risk given mixed July weather with wetter than average weather for areas in south England.
  • Today's data is unlikely to be the catalyst for any MPC member to decide whether to change their vote at upcoming MPC meetings - although in combination with labour and inflation data it will hold some consideration, either way there are still two-way risks for the market reaction.
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