September 23, 2024 08:38 GMT
UK DATA: PMIs soft - but better than Eurozone developments
UK DATA
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A miss of 0.6-0.7 points vs consensus for the UK PMIs across manuf, services and composite - but nowhere near the misses seen across the Eurozone, so could in some ways be seen as a marginal positive in the context of this morning's data. Developments in prices and employment are supportive of further cuts in our view, but confidence held up well and there are increasing concerns surrounding shipping costs, fiscal policy and global (particularly EU) demand. This should support a November cut, but shouldn't move the dial too much for December at this stage.
Highlights from press release:
- On prices: "Prices charged inflation across the private sector economy eased to a 42-month low in September. A weaker rise in prices charged by service providers more than offset an acceleration in factory gate price inflation. However, there were still signs of elevated cost pressures in September. The overall rate of input price inflation picked up since August, driven by higher wages and shipping costs."
- Employment: "Private sector employment growth slowed for the second month running to its weakest since June. Service providers signalled only a marginal increase in staffing numbers, while manufacturers indicated renewed job cuts."
- Confidence: "Finally, business activity expectations for the year ahead remained upbeat in September and the degree of confidence edged since the prior survey period. Optimism was mainly attributed to improvements in broader economic conditions, the impact of softer inflationary pressures on customer demand, and long-term investment plans."
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