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UK-EU relations under strain as EU potentially blocks vaccine exports

UK
  • Political developments will also be closely watched this week, particularly regarding vaccine supply (which has now seen more than 50% of adults receive a first dose). Supply is already expected to slow in April as 5 million doses of the AZ/Oxford vaccine that were due to be imported from India have been delayed (after reported export bans) while a batch of 1.7 million doses which has already been delivered is undergoing additional checks and it is uncertain whether this batch will be able to be used. This has led to guidance for the NHS not to book in any vaccine appointments for anyone outside of the top 9 priority groups during April, and instead to focus on second doses and anyone in the priority groups who has yet to receive a first dose (note that the priority groups include all over 50s, all clinically vulnerable, all carers and NHS workers).
  • Weekend reports suggest that the EU will block any exports to the UK of the AZ/Oxford vaccine or its ingredients to the UK, but that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is attempting to drum up enough support from Eurozone leaders to veto this before a final decision is reached on Thursday. A ban on exports to the UK of the AZ/Oxford would have huge political ramifications, particularly with the EU and UK already at odds regarding the implementation of the post-Brexit trade deal in Northern Ireland. However, most of the vaccines imported into the UK from the EU have been in the form of the Pfizer vaccine. A block on exports of the Pfizer vaccine from the EU (which is manufactured in Belgium and reports suggest the Belgian government would strongly oppose) would have much more impact on the pace of the UK's vaccination scheme while also calling into question whether enough second doses could be secured within the 12 week recommended timeframe for a second dose to be administered.

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