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UK: Farage Into 2nd Place In Betting Markets To Become Next Conservative Leader

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Nigel Farage, honourary president of the right-wing populist Reform UK, has moved into second place in betting markets to become the next leader of the Conservative party. Data from Smarkets shows a sharp spike in the implied probability of Farage, a former leader of UKIP and a driving force behind the UK's exit from the EU, taking over as next leader of the Conservatives following a post on X earlier from Farage claiming he would be making a significant announcement at 1600BST (speculation is he could announce a run for a parliamentary seat, or an electoral pact with the Conservatives). 

  • Data from Smarkets shows Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch as favourite to lead the party with an implied probability of 26.7%. Farage is up to second on 16.1%, while Leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt is third with 15.6%. 
  • With the centre-left Labour party looking increasingly assured of a sizeable majority following the 4 July election, markets are unlikely to pay much attention to short-term developments within the Conservative party.
  • However, should Farage take the Conservative leadership it could lead to a long-term shift in UK politics. Farage is a divisive figure, and given the UK's FPTP electoral system, such figures often struggle to win representation (Farage has stood for parliament seven times and lost seven times). Should Farage take on the Conservative leadership, it could see Labour remain in power for a sustained period of time beyond the next parliamentary term. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of next Conservative Party Leader, %

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Nigel Farage, honourary president of the right-wing populist Reform UK, has moved into second place in betting markets to become the next leader of the Conservative party. Data from Smarkets shows a sharp spike in the implied probability of Farage, a former leader of UKIP and a driving force behind the UK's exit from the EU, taking over as next leader of the Conservatives following a post on X earlier from Farage claiming he would be making a significant announcement at 1600BST (speculation is he could announce a run for a parliamentary seat, or an electoral pact with the Conservatives). 

  • Data from Smarkets shows Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch as favourite to lead the party with an implied probability of 26.7%. Farage is up to second on 16.1%, while Leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt is third with 15.6%. 
  • With the centre-left Labour party looking increasingly assured of a sizeable majority following the 4 July election, markets are unlikely to pay much attention to short-term developments within the Conservative party.
  • However, should Farage take the Conservative leadership it could lead to a long-term shift in UK politics. Farage is a divisive figure, and given the UK's FPTP electoral system, such figures often struggle to win representation (Farage has stood for parliament seven times and lost seven times). Should Farage take on the Conservative leadership, it could see Labour remain in power for a sustained period of time beyond the next parliamentary term. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of next Conservative Party Leader, %

Keep reading...Show less