UK DATA
UK GfK Consumer Confidence rose more than expected by 2 points to -19 (vs -20 consensus, -21 prior) in April, and rose 11 points on a year-on-year basis.
- In particular, 4 of 5 subcomponents improved. The 'General Economic Situation over last 12 months' rose 4 points, whilst 'Personal Financial Situation over the next 12 months', 'General Economic Situation over the next 12 months' and 'Major Purchase Index' all rose 2 points. 'Personal Financial Situation over next 12 months' remained unchanged at +2 , although 15 points higher than it was a year ago, in April 2023.
- While the overall index remains negative, it is comfortably above the 2023 average of -29, and all subcomponents have improved since April last year.
- The GfK Client Strategy Director highlights the improvements are reflecting "the impact on household budgets of lower inflation and the anticipation of further tax cuts" - although the Savings Index (which is not included in the overall measure) has increased to 26 in April, a 7 point rise compared to April 2023.
- The chart below shows, as inflation has begun to approach more 'normal' levels, the relationship between consumer confidence and inflation is weakening, as price increases become less dominant in consumers' minds, but more recently shows that as inflation has began to plateau so has confidence.
- April's survey was conducted among a sample of 2009 individuals from April 2nd to April 15th 2024.
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