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Is CPI Inflation About to Decelerate?

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UK inflation is set to accelerate in April to 1.5% year-on-year, following the uptick to 0.7% in March. This would mark the highest level since March 2020 -- when CPI also rose 1.5% y/y -- but remain below the Bank of England's 2% target for a 21st straight month.

  • Core inflation is seen slightly higher at 1.3% in April, after March's 1.1% increase.
  • The largest upward contribution in March came from transport and clothing prices, mainly due to base effects as petrol prices rose in March 2021 compared to a fall a year ago and clothing prices recovered as well.
  • Base effects will boost inflation figures going forward. The BOE projects inflation to rise above the target by the end of 2021, but sees CPI at 2.0% in the medium-term.
  • The services PMI indicated another rise in output charges in April, although the growth rate of charged inflation eased slightly from March's 40-year high. Moreover, April's BRC Shop Price Index expects prices to rise as global food and oil prices, along with shipping costs, shipping costs rose.

The UK Office for National Statistics will publish the latest data at 0600GMT Weds, May 19.


Source: Office for National Statistics