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Free AccessUK Prelim Data Forecasts: Jun UK Indus Production, Trade Data
By Jamie Satchithanantham
LONDON (MNI) - The Office of National Statistics' short-term indicators
dataset, due out August 10, will provide the final pieces of the Q2 IOP/trade
jigsaw.
In its provisional estimate of Q2 GDP growth, published July 26, the ONS
envisaged industrial production and construction faring better in June and the
preliminary poll of analysts' expectations point to similar results.
Concerning IOP, the ONS pencilled in a return to growth in June albeit a
modest one. After contracting 0.1% m/m in May they saw a growth of 0.1% m/m in
June. The equivalent MNI median is a bit more optimistic, with growth of 0.4%
m/m expected.
The preliminary findings from the MNI survey also see manufacturing
returning to growth. After contracting 0.2% m/m in May a 0.3% m/m rise is
expected by analysts. The ONS, on the other hand, saw manufacturing output down
0.1% m/m in June.
Below are MNI surveys of analysts' forecasts for these indicators.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun Jun Jun Jun
Industrial Industrial Manufacturing Manufacturing
Production Production Output Output
% m/m % oya % m/m % oya
Date Out 10-Aug 10-Aug 10-Aug 10-Aug
Median 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.9
Forecast High 1.4 1.1 0.4 1.1
Forecast Low 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.6
Standard Deviation 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2
Count 6 5 6 5
Prior -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.4
Capital Economics 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.9
Commerzbank 0.0 N/A N/A N/A
Investec 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.6
Lloyds TSB 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.9
Nomura 0.4 0.1 0.4 1.1
Oxford Economics 0.4 0.1 0.4 1.1
May 2017 was the warmest May on record since 2008 and, unsurprisingly,
utilities output was down 0.8% on the month, accounting for roughly a third of
the 0.1% m/m drop in IOP in May. Given June was also warm by historical
standards, a strong bounce back from this sector may not materialise.
Observing the underlying trend, industrial production was down 1.2% in the
three months to May. Manufacturing, which accounts for roughly 70% of total IOP,
was down 1.1% in the same period and accounted for 0.79pp of the 1.2% fall.
Within this, output from the volatile pharmaceutical sector was down 7.8% 3m/3m.
Official data showed second quarter production output contracting 0.4% q/q
in Q2 with manufacturing down 0.5% q/q. This, though rather gloomy, contrasts
with the recent, more bullish survey data.
Though the manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low of 54.3 in June it
recovered in July, rising to 55.1 off the back of near survey-record growth in
export orders.
Meanwhile, the June CBI Industrial Trends survey also came in strong with
total orders at the highest level since May 1988.
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.