UK Prelim Data Forecasts: Jun UK Indus Production, Trade Data

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - The Office of National Statistics' short-term indicators

dataset, due out August 10, will provide the final pieces of the Q2 IOP/trade

jigsaw. 

     In its provisional estimate of Q2 GDP growth, published July 26, the ONS

envisaged industrial production and construction faring better in June and the

preliminary poll of analysts' expectations point to similar results.

     Concerning IOP, the ONS pencilled in a return to growth in June albeit a

modest one. After contracting 0.1% m/m in May they saw a growth of 0.1% m/m in

June. The equivalent MNI median is a bit more optimistic, with growth of 0.4%

m/m expected.    

     The preliminary findings from the MNI survey also see manufacturing

returning to growth. After contracting 0.2% m/m in May a 0.3% m/m rise is

expected by analysts. The ONS, on the other hand, saw manufacturing output down

0.1% m/m in June.  

     Below are MNI surveys of analysts' forecasts for these indicators.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                           Jun         Jun            Jun            Jun

                    Industrial  Industrial  Manufacturing  Manufacturing

                    Production  Production         Output         Output

                         % m/m       % oya          % m/m          % oya

Date Out                10-Aug      10-Aug         10-Aug         10-Aug

Median                     0.4         0.1            0.3            0.9

Forecast High              1.4         1.1            0.4            1.1

Forecast Low               0.0        -0.2           -0.1            0.6

Standard Deviation         0.5         0.5            0.2            0.2

Count                        6           5              6              5

Prior                     -0.1        -0.2           -0.2            0.4

Capital Economics          0.3         0.0            0.2            0.9

Commerzbank                0.0         N/A            N/A            N/A

Investec                   0.1        -0.2           -0.1            0.6

Lloyds TSB                 1.4         1.1            0.2            0.9

Nomura                     0.4         0.1            0.4            1.1

Oxford Economics           0.4         0.1            0.4            1.1

     May 2017 was the warmest May on record since 2008 and, unsurprisingly,

utilities output was down 0.8% on the month, accounting for roughly a third of

the 0.1% m/m drop in IOP in May. Given June was also warm by historical

standards, a strong bounce back from this sector may not materialise. 

     Observing the underlying trend, industrial production was down 1.2% in the

three months to May. Manufacturing, which accounts for roughly 70% of total IOP,

was down 1.1% in the same period and accounted for 0.79pp of the 1.2% fall.

Within this, output from the volatile pharmaceutical sector was down 7.8% 3m/3m.

     Official data showed second quarter production output contracting 0.4% q/q

in Q2 with manufacturing down 0.5% q/q. This, though rather gloomy, contrasts

with the recent, more bullish survey data.

     Though the manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low of 54.3 in June it

recovered in July, rising to 55.1 off the back of near survey-record growth in

export orders. 

     Meanwhile, the June CBI Industrial Trends survey also came in strong with

total orders at the highest level since May 1988. 

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]