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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SECURITY
Ukrainian troops have consolidated their weeklong surprise advance into Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast on the North-Eastern border with Ukraine.
- Due to a lack of official information on the Ukrainian operation, it is difficult to evaluate the status of the operation with authority. Military analyst Mick Ryan notes that according to “reliable” open source intelligence, Ukraine’s troops have expanded holdings in Kursk oblast to, “a likely front line that includes Snagost, Malaya Loknia, Cherkasskoe Porechie, and Martynovka.”
- The operation has four likely intended outcomes for Kyiv: To draw Russian offensive troops from the Donbas front where they have been making recent gains; to undermine an implicit social contract between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian people that the war remains intangible; to demonstrate to international backers that Ukraine maintains credible military capabilities worth funding; and to boost morale domestically.
- For Kyiv, the next logical strategic move is likely a withdrawal of troops back to the border. This would preserve the political and strategic successes of the operation without risking troops being cut off in Russian territory. Other options include a partial withdrawal to dig into a defensible position or the expansion of the operation towards to the city of Kursk.
- It is unclear if Kyiv has the resources or logistics networks for a long-term forward operation or occupation, meaning such offensive options would risk significant losses of troops and military hardware.
Figure 1: Ukrainian Incursion into Kursk Oblast
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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