UN Ceasefire Vote Looms, But Little Indication Of Passage

The UN Security Council is due to hold another vote on a resolution that calls for a suspension of the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. Intense negotiations have so far failed to come up with a text that would not draw a veto from the United States, which has raised doubts of a UN monitoring system for aid entering Gaza as Israel claims security risks would be posed if its forces were unable to search cargo entering the strip.

• While the US' tone has changed somewhat in relation to the Israel-Hamas war, with greater focus on advocating Israeli restraint, the Biden administration has vetoed two previous resolutions on a ceasefire and has indicated it would be willing to do the same again.
• Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas remain ongoing, with Egypt and Qatar acting as mediators, but at present there is little signal of any pause, temporary or otherwise, in the short term.
• The attacks on shipping in the Red Sea will continue as long as the fighting in Gaza does according to the Iranian-backed Houthi militias in Yemen. The 10-nation US-led coalition intended to protect shipping has been described by the US as serving a defensive purpose. Nevertheless there remains the risk of an escalation as Houthis claim they will 'not stand idly by' if attacked by coalition forces.
• Following delays to the vote that was originally scheduled for 18 Dec, the earliest that it could now come is the morning of 21 Dec eastern time.