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Uncertainty Over Policy Outlook and Tensions With EU Bloc Weighing on PLN

POLAND
  • Some NBP members and former Polish policymakers have criticized the central bank in its late response to the surge in inflation.
  • The uncertainty over the policy outlook in addition to the growing political tensions with the EU have been weighing on PLN, and therefore supporting inflation expectations.
  • The NBP moved its next rate meeting forward to Jan. 4 from an earlier scheduled Jan. 12, and is is likely to continue its tightening cycle, maintaining the current pace to combat inflation and limit PLN depreciation (50bps hike).
  • EURPLN has been consolidating lower in the past week, currently trading at around 4.60 (100DMA). Next support to watch on the downside stands at 4.5730 (200DMA). On the topside, resistance to watch stands at 4.6290 (50DMA).
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