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AUSSIE BONDS: Unchanged But At Session Highs, Early Close For US Tsys

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM +1.0& XM flat) are slightly richer and near Sydney session highs after Retail Sales undershot expectations.

  • November retail sales rose 0.8% m/m boosted by Black Friday sales, the eighth straight monthly increase. The annual rate eased to 3.0% y/y from 3.5% y/y but continues to signal a pickup in spending in H2 2024.
  • Cash US tsys are 2-3bp richening in cash US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. Reminder: Open outcry and CME Globex trading session for interest rate products will have an early close of 1300 ET and 1315ET, respectively on January 9, 2025.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -17bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps lower, with EFPs slightly tighter.
  • The bills strip has twist-flattened, with pricing -1 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings today and is 2-6bps softer compared to pre-CPI levels from yesterday. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (120%), with the probability of a February cut rising to 72% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Household Spending data.
  • AOFM Bond issuance is expected to resume in the week beginning 13 January 2025.
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ACGBs (YM +1.0& XM flat) are slightly richer and near Sydney session highs after Retail Sales undershot expectations.

  • November retail sales rose 0.8% m/m boosted by Black Friday sales, the eighth straight monthly increase. The annual rate eased to 3.0% y/y from 3.5% y/y but continues to signal a pickup in spending in H2 2024.
  • Cash US tsys are 2-3bp richening in cash US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. Reminder: Open outcry and CME Globex trading session for interest rate products will have an early close of 1300 ET and 1315ET, respectively on January 9, 2025.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -17bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps lower, with EFPs slightly tighter.
  • The bills strip has twist-flattened, with pricing -1 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings today and is 2-6bps softer compared to pre-CPI levels from yesterday. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (120%), with the probability of a February cut rising to 72% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Household Spending data.
  • AOFM Bond issuance is expected to resume in the week beginning 13 January 2025.