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GILTS: Under Pressure As Modest CPI Rally Gives Way

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

{GB} GILTS: Gilts fade the initial CPI-driven bid, as bearish technicals reassert themselves and oil ticks higher.

  • Gilt futures through round number support at 93.00, last 92.90.
  • Next support at a Fibonacci projection (92.78).
  • Yields 0.5bp lower to 2bp higher, curve twist steepens.
  • 30s consolidating the recent break break above 5.00%. Benchmark still ~15bp below ’23 highs, last 5.06%.
  • 10s last 4.54%, November 14 high (4.566%) still untested.
  • Early outperformance vs. Bunds fades, spread now only 0.5bp narrower on the day at 228.7bp. Yesterday saw the highest close for the spread since 1990.
  • SONIA Dec ’25 BoE dated OIS/SFIZ5 futures operate around recent hawkish extremes with today’s inline to marginally softer-than-expected CPI data having little lasting impact, likely as the “surprises” within the data shouldn’t have too much of a bearing on monetary policy.
  • BoE-dated OIS prices 55bp of cuts through ’25.
  • SFIZ5 a little above triple bottom support that was printed in early to mid-November.
  • Macro and cross-market cues set to dominate during the remainder of the day.
  • Final ’24 BoE decision due tomorrow, click for our full preview.
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{GB} GILTS: Gilts fade the initial CPI-driven bid, as bearish technicals reassert themselves and oil ticks higher.

  • Gilt futures through round number support at 93.00, last 92.90.
  • Next support at a Fibonacci projection (92.78).
  • Yields 0.5bp lower to 2bp higher, curve twist steepens.
  • 30s consolidating the recent break break above 5.00%. Benchmark still ~15bp below ’23 highs, last 5.06%.
  • 10s last 4.54%, November 14 high (4.566%) still untested.
  • Early outperformance vs. Bunds fades, spread now only 0.5bp narrower on the day at 228.7bp. Yesterday saw the highest close for the spread since 1990.
  • SONIA Dec ’25 BoE dated OIS/SFIZ5 futures operate around recent hawkish extremes with today’s inline to marginally softer-than-expected CPI data having little lasting impact, likely as the “surprises” within the data shouldn’t have too much of a bearing on monetary policy.
  • BoE-dated OIS prices 55bp of cuts through ’25.
  • SFIZ5 a little above triple bottom support that was printed in early to mid-November.
  • Macro and cross-market cues set to dominate during the remainder of the day.
  • Final ’24 BoE decision due tomorrow, click for our full preview.