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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA DATA
- Whilst the BoC’s trim and median measures saw offsetting prior revisions for the small miss in April in Y/Y terms, the latest CPI trends are more encouraging for the BoC (see summary figures above).
- Some observations:
- The trim/median 3-mth run rate only accelerated from 1.4 to 1.6% annualized vs the 1.8-1.9 that had appeared more in line with consensus.
- The trim/median 6-mth rate held steady at 2.4% annualized, its third month within the 1-3% target range. Notably, it also remains below the Y/Y metric (of 2.75%) and continues to imply downward momentum, in contrast to the US where the core CPI 6-mth rate has been above the Y/Y for three months now.
- Alternate core CPI metrics remain even softer: CPIxFE fell four tenths to 2.2% (lowest since Mar’21) and CPIX fell five tenths to just 0.9% (lowest since Sep’20).
- Take a crude unweighted average of these four core measures and our composite of “underlying” inflation eased two tenths to 2.0% annualized on a six-month basis.
- BoC-dated OIS June cut odds slowly build, now to ~15bps vs ~11bps pre-release.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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