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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Underlying Inflation Sees Sizeable Step Lower
- The February CPI report looks out and out dovish across the main core CPI measures.
- The average of the BoC’s preferred core measures (median and trim) printed 3.15% Y/Y (cons 3.35) after an unrevised 3.35%.
- The three-month run rate dropped to 2.2% annualized from 3.1% (3.2 prior to revisions), its lowest since Jan’21 and close to the 2% target midpoint.
- Whilst only three months, the six-month also pushed lower from 3.2% to 2.6% for its first reading back in the 1-3% target band since May’21.
- Alternate core measures are showing notably softer rates still: CPIxFE and CPIX saw 1.4% and 0.0% annualized over three months, or 2.8% and 2.1% Y/Y respectively.
- Averaging all four measures for a simple measure of underlying inflation, ‘underlying’ inflation slowed from 2.5% to 1.5% over the past three months, the six-month rate fell from 2.8% to 2.1% and the Y/Y fell from 3.1% to 2.8% Y/Y.
- More broadly, StatsCan notes: “Notable contributors to the deceleration included the indexes for cellular services, food purchased from stores, and Internet access services.”
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