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Underlying Inflation Sees Sizeable Step Lower

CANADA DATA
  • The February CPI report looks out and out dovish across the main core CPI measures.
  • The average of the BoC’s preferred core measures (median and trim) printed 3.15% Y/Y (cons 3.35) after an unrevised 3.35%.
  • The three-month run rate dropped to 2.2% annualized from 3.1% (3.2 prior to revisions), its lowest since Jan’21 and close to the 2% target midpoint.
  • Whilst only three months, the six-month also pushed lower from 3.2% to 2.6% for its first reading back in the 1-3% target band since May’21.
  • Alternate core measures are showing notably softer rates still: CPIxFE and CPIX saw 1.4% and 0.0% annualized over three months, or 2.8% and 2.1% Y/Y respectively.
  • Averaging all four measures for a simple measure of underlying inflation, ‘underlying’ inflation slowed from 2.5% to 1.5% over the past three months, the six-month rate fell from 2.8% to 2.1% and the Y/Y fell from 3.1% to 2.8% Y/Y.
  • More broadly, StatsCan notes: “Notable contributors to the deceleration included the indexes for cellular services, food purchased from stores, and Internet access services.”

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