Free Trial

Underperforming EGB Rally Ahead Of CPI and Retail Sales

US TSYS
  • Treasuries trade firmer, notably underperforming the rally in EGBs attributed to China considering a proposal for local governments to buy millions of unsold homes.
  • Firm focus is on today’s US CPI report which lands along with retail sales for a heavy data docket.
  • Cash yields sit 1.5-2bp lower, for a mild bull flattening with 2s10s at -38bps (-0.7bps) for its lowest since May 7 briefly and before that Apr 19.
  • TYM4 has lifted to a high of 109-08 (+ 04+) on solid volumes approaching 300k.
  • It has poked through channel top resistance and tests a key resistance at 109-09+ (May 3 high) after which lies 109-22+ (Fibo retracement of Feb 1 – Apr 25 bear leg). On the flip side, a hotter than expected CPI print could see a shift closer to support at 108-15 (May 14 low) having spiked lower in the snap reaction to surprisingly strong PPI main readings.
  • Data: MBA mortgages May 10 (0700ET), CPI Apr (0830ET), Retail Sales Apr (0830ET), Empire mfg May (0830ET), Business inventories Mar (1000ET), NAHB index May (1000ET), TIC flows Mar (1600ET)
  • Fedspeak: VC Barr testifies (1000ET), Kashkari fireside chat (1200ET), Gov. Bowman Blockchain Summit (1520ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)

2Y yields pull further away from 5% ahead of CPISource: Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.