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AUSTRALIA: Unemployment Rate Could Fall Driven By Post-Holiday Job Starters

AUSTRALIA
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February jobs data are released on Thursday and will be again be scrutinised, especially as the RBA said that the tight labour market was the strongest argument to leave policy on hold in February. It is also a key reason why “the Board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing”, as the labour market “tightened a little further in late 2024” and could be signalling the economy is stronger than assumed. The RBA is also focussed on the underemployment & youth unemployment rates and change in hours worked.

  • Employment has consistently printed stronger than expected with January up 44k and 2024 seeing 72k more jobs than 2023 despite restrictive monetary policy.
  • Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 30k rise in employment in February with projections ranging from +15k to +60k with most estimates between +25k and +40k. CBA and Westpac expectations are in line with consensus, while ANZ and NAB are higher at 35k and 45k respectively.
  • The 3-month average employment to January was 44.4k and 6-month 41.5k, thus a consensus print would be below the recent trend.
  • The unemployment rate is forecast to be stable at 4.1%. Forecasts are between 4.0% and 4.2% with more forecasts for it to fall than to rise at 10 vs 3. January showed an elevated number of people without a job but having one to start in February, which could weigh on February’s unemployment rate. CBA is in line with consensus, whereas ANZ, NAB and Westpac expect it to fall 0.1pp to 4.0%.
  • The participation rate is projected to be steady at the record 67.3% (forecast range 67.2-67.4%).
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February jobs data are released on Thursday and will be again be scrutinised, especially as the RBA said that the tight labour market was the strongest argument to leave policy on hold in February. It is also a key reason why “the Board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing”, as the labour market “tightened a little further in late 2024” and could be signalling the economy is stronger than assumed. The RBA is also focussed on the underemployment & youth unemployment rates and change in hours worked.

  • Employment has consistently printed stronger than expected with January up 44k and 2024 seeing 72k more jobs than 2023 despite restrictive monetary policy.
  • Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 30k rise in employment in February with projections ranging from +15k to +60k with most estimates between +25k and +40k. CBA and Westpac expectations are in line with consensus, while ANZ and NAB are higher at 35k and 45k respectively.
  • The 3-month average employment to January was 44.4k and 6-month 41.5k, thus a consensus print would be below the recent trend.
  • The unemployment rate is forecast to be stable at 4.1%. Forecasts are between 4.0% and 4.2% with more forecasts for it to fall than to rise at 10 vs 3. January showed an elevated number of people without a job but having one to start in February, which could weigh on February’s unemployment rate. CBA is in line with consensus, whereas ANZ, NAB and Westpac expect it to fall 0.1pp to 4.0%.
  • The participation rate is projected to be steady at the record 67.3% (forecast range 67.2-67.4%).