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Unemployment Rate Details Stronger Than Beat Implied

CANADA DATA
  • Released earlier today, the Canadian unemployment rate only increased from 5.46% to 5.52% contrary to consensus of 5.6%.
  • It came as employment growth of 40k was double that of consensus and mostly kept up with the labour force increasing 54k (in turn as the population surged by 103k).
  • However, the details appear more hawkish still, as the increase in the unemployment rate was led by a sharp bounce in the 15-24 cohort (from 10.2 to 11.25%) and less so the 55+ group (from 4.4% to 4.7%).
  • Instead, the prime age 25-54 group - typically those with greatest debt obligations - saw the unemployment rate unwind some of July’s notable increase, falling from 4.78% to 4.52%.
  • However, whilst it shows a more hawkish picture than the overall number when looking at the latest change, the two are similar in trend terms when compared to pre-pandemic levels: the prime-age rate is -0.3pps below Feb’20 vs -0.2pps for the overall unemployment rate.

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