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Unemployment Rate VS FOMC Forecast

US DATA
  • The unemployment rate surprisingly increasing from 3.39% to 3.65% in May (consensus 3.5) saw it hits its first rounded 3.7% figure since Oct’22 and having last been higher Feb’22.
  • The sizeable decline in the volatile household employment category drove the first more significant increase in the rate in recent months after a string of downward surprises, but it remains far off the FOMC median of 4.5% for Q423 as from the March SEP (in a central tendency range of 4.0-4.7%).
  • These forecasts will be revamped at the Jun 13-14 meeting, having pencilled in ~4.5 readings for 4Q23 ever since the Sep'22 FOMC.

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