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Spot USD/PHP reopened on a softer footing, but has trimmed losses since and last trades +0.025 at PHP49.945. The rate charted a double top pattern yesterday and bears look for renewed losses past PHP49.816, which represents the 23.6% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 19 rally. Bulls keep an eye on Jul 28/22 highs of PHP50.490/50.496.

  • USD/PHP 1-month NDF last seen +0.070 at PHP50.060. A break under the 38.2% retracement of the Jun 7 - Jul 19 rally at PHP49.969 would help confirm the formation of a head & shoulders top pattern. Bulls need a rally above Jul 27 high of PHP50.730 to get some reprieve.
  • Philippine unemployment rate remained at 7.7% in June, amid upticks in participation and underemployment.
  • Presidential spokesman Roque said that the PHP5.024tn 2022 budget plan is being printed and prepared for submission to Congress. The spending plan must be submitted within 30 days from the President's State of the Nation Address. Pres Duterte delivered his SONA on Jul 26.
  • There are a couple of important releases on the local data docket during the remainder of this week. Philippine CPI comes out this Thursday, while trade balance comes out on Friday.

Fig. 1: Results from the June 2021 Labour Force Survey (LFS)