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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
German retail sales unexpectedly contracted in February, by 1.9% M/M (real, seasonally- and calendar-adjusted, vs +0.4% cons; -0.3% prior, revised from -0.4%). Excluding car sales, the print was also weak at -1.9% M/M (vs -0.3% prior), the weakest monthly rate since October 2022. Ex-car sales were down 2.8% from a year earlier.
- Overall, the data continue to suggest that German retail conditions remain very weak - excluding one broadly flat print last October, the yearly ex-auto rate has been negative for 22 months.
- The print suggests some downside risk to consumer spending in Q124 - which, according to MNI's collation of sellside consensus, is currently projected at +0.2% Y/Y (incorporating an upward revision of 0.15pp in the past month).
- Consumer spending contributed 0.2pp to real GDP growth in Q4'23, somewhat counterintuitively given weak prior retail sales data.
- From an even broader perspective, real retail sales are at the same level as they were in late-2018 - food sales are the same as a decade ago.
MNI, Destatis
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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