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UniCredit say NBH Likely to Slow Pace of Rate Cuts at Next Meeting

HUNGARY
  • UniCredit think the NBH is likely to slow the pace of cuts from 100bp at the October 24 rate setting meeting, but say that all options, ranging from no cut to a 100bp cut, may be on the table.
  • If the NBH underdelivers with regard to market expectations, EUR/HUF may test 380 as long as external factors remain supportive, they say.
  • UniCredit say that with a sticky-inflation outlook, the NBH is likely to face increased pressure to carry on rate cuts next year to support growth and mitigate fiscal burdens. They think the appreciating real effective exchange rate trend should fade as the HUF interest-rate premium narrows, putting pressure on the HUF as wage and price growth remains elevated.
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