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MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

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Aircraft-Led Durables Collapse Masks Rebound In Core Orders

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Unwinding Early Risk-On Tone Ahead GDP Data Risk

US TSYS
  • Tsys are trading near late session lows after the bell, as are stocks ahead Thursday's busy data calendar: GDP, PCE, Wkly Claims and Tsy Sec Yellen Outlook.
  • Treasury futures had recovered from Tuesday's modest sell-off Wednesday, back near Monday's close (TYH4 currently +9 at 111-16, yield 4.0955%). Risk-on tone resumes as SPX Eminis climb to new contract highs (ESH4 4933.25) following strong gains in Asia/Europe overnight.
  • Treasury futures pared gains after larger than expected gains for S&P Global US PMIs for January: Mfg PMI (50.3 vs. 47.6 est, 47.9 prior); Services PMI (52.9 vs. 51.5 est, 51.4 prior); Composite PMI (52.3 vs. 51.0 est, 50.9 prior).
  • Tsys gapped lower/tested lows (5Y yield climbs to 4.0671%) after $61B 5Y note auction (91282CJW2) tailed: 4.055% high yield vs. 4.035% WI; 2.31x bid-to-cover vs. 2.50x in the prior month.
  • The rise in yields after the weak auction spilled over to equities as accounts took profits ahead Thursday's data. Reminder: several earnings announcements expected after the close: IBM, Seagate, Lam Research, Tesla, Raymond James and Crown Castle.
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