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Upcoming IFO Data May Signal More Robust Growth Outlooks

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

Further improvements are pencilled in for the IFO survey (due at 0900) across industry, services and export sectors.

  • The headline and expectations indexes are both seen up 1.7 and 2.1 points to 90.3 and 85.3, yet the record jump in ZEW survey expectations implies a substantial upside to expectations is on the cards.
  • IFO's December economic outlook report forecasts +0.1% growth in Germany for 2023, rebounding to +1.6% in 2024, whilst euro area growth should remain more elevated at +0.6% (2023) and +1.7% in 2024. These eurozone projections are 0.1 to 0.2pp more optimistic that the latest December ECB macroeconomic projections.
  • An upside surprise this morning would add to the narrative of a rebound in eurozone growth outlooks as the bloc looks likely to enter a more shallow contraction than initially anticipated.
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