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Upcoming IFO Data May Signal More Robust Growth Outlooks

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Further improvements are pencilled in for the IFO survey (due at 0900) across industry, services and export sectors.

  • The headline and expectations indexes are both seen up 1.7 and 2.1 points to 90.3 and 85.3, yet the record jump in ZEW survey expectations implies a substantial upside to expectations is on the cards.
  • IFO's December economic outlook report forecasts +0.1% growth in Germany for 2023, rebounding to +1.6% in 2024, whilst euro area growth should remain more elevated at +0.6% (2023) and +1.7% in 2024. These eurozone projections are 0.1 to 0.2pp more optimistic that the latest December ECB macroeconomic projections.
  • An upside surprise this morning would add to the narrative of a rebound in eurozone growth outlooks as the bloc looks likely to enter a more shallow contraction than initially anticipated.
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Further improvements are pencilled in for the IFO survey (due at 0900) across industry, services and export sectors.

  • The headline and expectations indexes are both seen up 1.7 and 2.1 points to 90.3 and 85.3, yet the record jump in ZEW survey expectations implies a substantial upside to expectations is on the cards.
  • IFO's December economic outlook report forecasts +0.1% growth in Germany for 2023, rebounding to +1.6% in 2024, whilst euro area growth should remain more elevated at +0.6% (2023) and +1.7% in 2024. These eurozone projections are 0.1 to 0.2pp more optimistic that the latest December ECB macroeconomic projections.
  • An upside surprise this morning would add to the narrative of a rebound in eurozone growth outlooks as the bloc looks likely to enter a more shallow contraction than initially anticipated.