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UPDATE: MNI: BOJ Funo: Easy Policy Seen Beyond Spring '20
--Adds Comments From Briefing in Paragraphs 5-10
HIROSHIMA, Japan (MNI) - Bank of Japan board member Yukitoshi Funo said
Wednesday that it is highly possible that the BOJ will maintain the current low
interest rates beyond spring 2020.
"For an extended period of time, 'at least through around spring 2020'
doesn't mean until spring 2020, it also includes the period after," Funo told
business leaders in Hiroshima City.
According to Funo, the BOJ will manage its monetary policy in an
appropriate manner to achieve the 2% price target, taking economic and price
conditions into account along with the financial market situation.
He didn't elaborate on how or when the BOJ would take additional easy
policy.
Funo told reporters that he sees no need for additional easy policy or
strengthening the forward guidance now, as the main scenario remains that
Japan's economy will pick up in the second half of this year.
However, if labor market conditions worsened or the momentum toward hitting
the 2% price target is lost, the BOJ will take appropriate action without
hesitation, Funo said.
Funo admitted that response of prices to the output gap remains dull but he
believe that the positive output gap will increase upward pressure.
"The positive output gap is being maintained for a prolonged period but the
achievement of the 2% target doesn't come in sight now. But I believe the
positive output gap contributes to boosting prices and it is essential to
maintain the positive output gap to achieve the 2% price target," Funo said.
Funo also said that Japan's prices remained weak compared with the economic
recovery and a tight labor market condition, but prices are largely in line with
the forecasts made in April.
He doesn't see the consumption tax hike expected in October sending the
economy into serious downturn, saying that the reaction of the tax hike would be
moderate as the last minute surge in demand is mild.
At the latest policy meeting held June 19-20, the BOJ left policy
unchanged, restating the forward guidance for policy rates, saying it will
maintain the easy policy "at least through around spring 2020", while noting
Japan's economy continued to expand moderately despite growing downside risks.
The next policy-setting meeting is scheduled for July 29-30 when the board
updates its quarterly Outlook Report, including growth and inflation forecasts
until fiscal 2021.
Other key points from Funo's speech:
--The BOJ needs to maintain current low interest rates to realize the
achievement of the 2% price target and also to keep a positive output gap for as
long as possible.
--With the output gap remaining positive, firms' stance will gradually
shift toward further raising wages and prices, and households' toleration of
price rises will increase. Medium- to long-term inflation expectations will also
rise, he said.
--However, Funo warned that it is not easy to change people's mindset and
behaviour, noting wages and prices will not increase easily and it takes time to
change previous practices.
--Funo said that Japan's exports are expected to remain weak for the time
being on the back of the slowdown in overseas economies, but he laid out an
optimistic view, saying that exports will likely return to a moderate recovery
path.
---Japan's prices remain weak compared with an economic expansion and the
tightness of the labour market condition.
--Future risks facing Japan's economy are various and big and overseas
economies are fragile, and it is necessary to pay close attention to their
impact on corporate and household sentiment.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MMJBJ$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.