UPDATE: MNI DATA SURVEY: January UK IOP, Mfg, Trade

By Jai Lahkani

     LONDON (MNI) - This week will provide the first glimpse of UK data that

will feed directly into Q1 gross domestic product. The ONS' Short-Term

Indicators data pack will include industrial production (IOP), manufacturing,

construction and trade data for the month of January.   

     After a blip in December, analysts expect a recovery in IOP with estimates

of month-over-month growth pencilled in at 1.5% versus a prior drop of -1.3% and

year on year growth at 2.5% versus flat growth previously.

------------------------------------------

                           Jan         Jan

                    Industrial  Industrial

                    Production  Production

                         % m/m       % y/y

Date Out                09-Mar      09-Mar

Median                     1.5         2.5

Forecast High              2.7         3.1

Forecast Low               0.8         1.6

Standard Deviation         0.5         0.5

Count                       10           6

Prior                     -1.3         0.0

Capital Economics          N/A         2.5

Credit Suisse              0.8         N/A

Commerzbank                1.5         N/A

Investec                   1.0         2.7

JP Morgan                  1.2         1.6

Lloyds TSB                 2.7         3.1

Nomura                     2.0         2.4

Oxford Economics           1.6         2.0

Pantheon                   1.5         N/A

Scotia                     1.8         N/A

UniCredit                  1.5         N/A

     The IHS/Markit Construction PMI tells a story converse to industrial

production with a further decline expected in January off the back of growth in

December. Analysts estimate m/m growth of -0.5% versus a prior rise of 1.6% with

the year on year measure falling -0.5% from a prior 0.2%.

----------------------------------------------

                             Jan           Jan

                    Construction  Construction

                          Output        Output

                           % m/m         % y/y

Date Out                  09-Mar        09-Mar

Median                      -0.5          -0.5

Forecast High                0.0           0.5

Forecast Low                -1.0          -1.5

Standard Deviation           0.4           0.8

Count                          7             5

Prior                        1.6          -0.2

Capital Economics            N/A           0.5

JP Morgan                   -0.8          -0.1

Lloyds TSB                  -0.5          -1.0

Oxford Economics             0.0          -0.5

Pantheon                    -1.0           N/A

Scotia                       0.0           N/A

Societe Generale            -1.0          -1.5

UniCredit                   -0.5           N/A

     Manufacturing output, however, appears to be continuing along its expansion

path, with the year-over-year growth rate expected to rise to 2.8% from 1.4%

previously. It is worth noting, however, that the m/m estimate at 0.2% is a

touch lower from the prior 0.3% result suggesting activity may be softening a

touch as the sterling boost fades and the global demand pickup loses some steam.

------------------------------------------------

                              Jan            Jan

                    Manufacturing  Manufacturing

                           Output         Output

                            % m/m          % oya

Date Out                   09-Mar         09-Mar

Median                        0.2            2.8

Forecast High                 0.4            3.1

Forecast Low                 -0.2            2.4

Standard Deviation            0.2            0.2

Count                           8              7

Prior                         0.3            1.4

Capital Economics             N/A            2.7

Investec                      0.2            2.8

JP Morgan                     0.1            2.7

Lloyds TSB                   -0.2            2.4

Nomura                        0.2            2.8

Oxford Economics              0.4            3.1

Scotia                        0.3            N/A

Societe Generale              0.3            2.9

UniCredit                     0.2            N/A

     After the marked widening in the trade balance in December, there are

grounds for optimism in January. Analsts estimate sizeable reduction from

stg4.9bn to stg3.3bn. The visible trade balance appears to be driving this

reduction with a reduction in the deficit forecast from stg13.6bn to stg11.9bn.

------------------------------------------

                              Dec      Dec

                            Total  Visible

                    Trade balance    Trade

                           stg bn   stg bn

Date Out                   09-Mar   09-Mar

Median                       -3.3    -11.9

Forecast High                -2.4    -11.2

Forecast Low                 -3.5    -12.3

Standard Deviation            0.5      0.6

Count                           6        4

Prior                        -4.9    -13.6

Consensus

Capital Economics            -3.0    -12.3

Investec                     -3.5    -12.3

Lloyds TSB                    N/A    -11.5

Oxford Economics             -2.4    -11.2

Pantheon                     -3.5      N/A

Societe Generale             -3.5      N/A

UniCredit                    -2.5      N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]