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Market News Topics
March 19, 2018 17:44 GMT
UPDATE: MNI DATA SURVEY: UK Inflation, Labour, PSNB, Ret Sales
MNI (London)
By Jai Lakhani
LONDON (MNI) - Kicking off a data-heavy week in the UK is the Inflation
data from the Office of National Statistics on Tuesday.
Analysts are pencilling an easing in inflation, with MNI forecasts
suggesting a drop in CPI to 2.8% in February from 3.0% in January. On a m/m
basis, the measure is expected to pick up from -0.5% to 0.6% in February.
Core CPI also has analysts pencilling in a slight drop, matching the 0.2pp
drop expected in CPI and reversing the January rise. After a prior y/y figure of
2.7%, analysts anticipate a y/y figure of 2.5% in February.
Also worth noting, CPIH y/y is predicted to fall 0.1pp from 2.7% in January
to 2.6% in February.
-------------------------------------------------------
Feb Feb Feb Feb
CPI CPI CPIH Core CPI
% m/m % y/y % y/y % y/y
Date Out 20-Mar 20-Mar 20-Mar 20-Mar
Median 0.6 2.8 2.6 2.5
Forecast High 0.7 2.9 2.6 2.7
Forecast Low 0.4 2.7 2.5 2.3
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Count 8 17 5 11
Prior -0.5 3.0 2.7 2.7
Barclays N/A 2.7 2.5 2.3
Berenberg N/A 2.9 N/A 2.6
Capital Economics 0.6 2.8 2.6 2.5
Commerzbank 0.5 2.7 N/A N/A
Daiwa Capital Markets N/A 2.8 N/A 2.5
Investec 0.4 2.7 N/A 2.3
JP Morgan N/A 2.8 N/A 2.5
Lloyds TSB 0.6 2.8 2.6 2.6
Natixis 0.5 2.8 N/A 2.5
Nomura 0.6 2.8 N/A N/A
Oxford Economics 0.5 2.8 N/A N/A
Pantheon N/A 2.8 N/A N/A
RBC N/A 2.8 2.5 N/A
Scotia N/A 2.7 N/A N/A
Standard Chartered N/A 2.9 N/A 2.7
Societe Generale 0.7 2.9 2.6 2.6
UniCredit N/A 2.8 N/A 2.6
RPI is also expected to follow a similar softening theme, with the y/y
figure expected to fall 0.3pp from 4% in January to 3.7% in February.
----------------------------------
Feb Feb
RPI RPI
% m/m % y/y
Date Out 20-Mar 20-Mar
Median 0.9 3.7
Forecast High 1.1 3.9
Forecast Low 0.7 3.5
Standard Deviation 0.2 0.1
Count 6 9
Prior -0.8 4.0
Capital Economics 1.1 3.9
Investec 0.7 3.6
JP Morgan N/A 3.6
Lloyds TSB 0.8 3.7
Nomura 0.9 3.8
Oxford Economics 0.7 3.5
RBC N/A 3.8
Scotia N/A 3.5
Societe Generale 0.9 3.8
Wednesday sees the release of the latest batch of labour market data.
In line with MNI's data analysis on wages picking up in 2018, MNI forecasts
show average total weekly earnings in January (as a 3m% y/y figure) up 0.2pp to
2.7% 3m y/y. Excluding bonuses, wage growth is expected to grow by a smaller
margin, up 0.1pp to 2.6%.
----------------------------------------------------
Jan Jan
Avg Weekly Avg Weekly
Earnings Earnings ex-Bonus
3m % YoY 3m % YoY
Date Out 21-Mar 21-Mar
Median 2.7 2.6
Forecast High 2.7 2.6
Forecast Low 2.5 2.5
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.0
Count 14 8
Prior 2.5 2.5
Capital Economics 2.7 2.6
Commerzbank 2.7 N/A
Daiwa Capital Markets 2.6 2.6
Investec 2.7 N/A
JP Morgan 2.6 2.6
Lloyds TSB 2.7 2.6
Natixis 2.7 N/A
Nomura 2.6 2.6
Oxford Economics 2.7 N/A
Pantheon 2.7 N/A
RBC 2.6 N/A
Scotia 2.7 N/A
Standard Chartered N/A 2.5
Societe Generale 2.5 2.5
UniCredit 2.6 2.6
Meanwhile, January's ILO Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged
from its prior 3m figure of 4.4%. That said, six of the 17 analysts forecast did
think the jobless rate would reverse back to 4.3% in February.
-----------------------------------
Jan
ILO
Unemployment
rate
3m %
Date Out 21-Mar
Median 4.4
Forecast High 4.4
Forecast Low 4.3
Standard Deviation 0.0
Count 17
Prior 4.4
Barclays 4.4
Berenberg 4.3
Capital Economics 4.3
Commerzbank 4.4
Daiwa Capital Markets 4.4
Investec 4.4
JP Morgan 4.4
Lloyds TSB 4.3
Natixis 4.4
Nomura 4.4
Oxford Economics 4.4
Pantheon 4.3
RBC 4.4
Scotia 4.3
Standard Chartered 4.4
Societe Generale 4.3
UniCredit 4.4
January's employment change from its prior 3m figure has analysts
pencilling in a slight fall from 88000 to 85000.
----------------------------------------
Jan
Employment Change
3m/3m
'000s
Date Out 21-Mar
Median 85.0
Forecast High 140.0
Forecast Low 60.0
Standard Deviation 31.7
Count 5
Prior 88.0
Capital Economics 85.0
Daiwa Capital Markets 100.0
JP Morgan 68.0
Lloyds TSB 140.0
UniCredit 60.0
Some bounce back in retail sales in pencilled in for February.
Month-on-month growth in total sales is expected to increase by 0.4 percentage
points from 0.1% in January to 0.5% in February. Excluding petrol, sales volumes
are expected to have expanded by 0.7% m/m. The annual rates are broadly
unchanged from January's respective levels.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb Feb Feb Feb
Retail Sales Retail Sales Retail Sales Retail Sales
Incl. Petrol Incl. Petrol Excl. Petrol Excl. Petrol
% MoM % YoY % MoM % YoY
Date Out 22-Mar 22-Mar 22-Mar 22-Mar
Median 0.5 1.4 0.7 1.5
Forecast High 0.8 1.7 1.0 1.9
Forecast Low 0.2 1.3 0.4 1.2
Standard Deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Count 8 5 5 5
Prior 0.1 1.6 0.1 1.5
Credit Suisse 0.5 1.4 N/A N/A
Commerzbank 0.6 N/A N/A N/A
Investec 0.7 1.7 0.7 1.6
Lloyds TSB 0.5 1.5 0.6 1.5
Natixis 0.3 1.3 N/A N/A
Nomura N/A N/A 0.4 1.3
Oxford Economics 0.3 1.3 N/A N/A
Pantheon 0.2 N/A N/A N/A
Standard Chartered N/A N/A N/A 1.2
Societe Generale N/A N/A 1.0 1.9
UniCredit 0.8 N/A 0.8 N/A
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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