UPDATE: MNI DATA SURVEY: UK Inflation, Labour, PSNB, Ret Sales

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - Kicking off a data-heavy week in the UK is the Inflation

data from the Office of National Statistics on Tuesday.

     Analysts are pencilling an easing in inflation, with MNI forecasts

suggesting a drop in CPI to 2.8% in February from 3.0% in January. On a m/m

basis, the measure is expected to pick up from -0.5% to 0.6% in February.

     Core CPI also has analysts pencilling in a slight drop, matching the 0.2pp

drop expected in CPI and reversing the January rise. After a prior y/y figure of

2.7%, analysts anticipate a y/y figure of 2.5% in February. 

     Also worth noting, CPIH y/y is predicted to fall 0.1pp from 2.7% in January

to 2.6% in February. 

-------------------------------------------------------

                          Feb     Feb     Feb       Feb

                          CPI     CPI    CPIH  Core CPI

                        % m/m   % y/y   % y/y     % y/y

Date Out               20-Mar  20-Mar  20-Mar    20-Mar

Median                    0.6     2.8     2.6       2.5

Forecast High             0.7     2.9     2.6       2.7

Forecast Low              0.4     2.7     2.5       2.3

Standard Deviation        0.1     0.1     0.1       0.1

Count                       8      17       5        11

Prior                    -0.5     3.0     2.7       2.7

Barclays                  N/A     2.7     2.5       2.3

Berenberg                 N/A     2.9     N/A       2.6

Capital Economics         0.6     2.8     2.6       2.5

Commerzbank               0.5     2.7     N/A       N/A

Daiwa Capital Markets     N/A     2.8     N/A       2.5

Investec                  0.4     2.7     N/A       2.3

JP Morgan                 N/A     2.8     N/A       2.5

Lloyds TSB                0.6     2.8     2.6       2.6

Natixis                   0.5     2.8     N/A       2.5

Nomura                    0.6     2.8     N/A       N/A

Oxford Economics          0.5     2.8     N/A       N/A

Pantheon                  N/A     2.8     N/A       N/A

RBC                       N/A     2.8     2.5       N/A

Scotia                    N/A     2.7     N/A       N/A

Standard Chartered        N/A     2.9     N/A       2.7

Societe Generale          0.7     2.9     2.6       2.6

UniCredit                 N/A     2.8     N/A       2.6

     RPI is also expected to follow a similar softening theme, with the y/y

figure expected to fall 0.3pp from 4% in January to 3.7% in February. 

----------------------------------

                       Feb     Feb

                       RPI     RPI

                     % m/m   % y/y

Date Out            20-Mar  20-Mar

Median                 0.9     3.7

Forecast High          1.1     3.9

Forecast Low           0.7     3.5

Standard Deviation     0.2     0.1

Count                    6       9

Prior                 -0.8     4.0

Capital Economics      1.1     3.9

Investec               0.7     3.6

JP Morgan              N/A     3.6

Lloyds TSB             0.8     3.7

Nomura                 0.9     3.8

Oxford Economics       0.7     3.5

RBC                    N/A     3.8

Scotia                 N/A     3.5

Societe Generale       0.9     3.8

     Wednesday sees the release of the latest batch of labour market data.

     In line with MNI's data analysis on wages picking up in 2018, MNI forecasts

show average total weekly earnings in January (as a 3m% y/y figure) up 0.2pp to

2.7% 3m y/y. Excluding bonuses, wage growth is expected to grow by a smaller

margin, up 0.1pp to 2.6%. 

----------------------------------------------------

                              Jan                Jan

                       Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly

                         Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus

                         3m % YoY           3m % YoY

Date Out                   21-Mar             21-Mar

Median                        2.7                2.6

Forecast High                 2.7                2.6

Forecast Low                  2.5                2.5

Standard Deviation            0.1                0.0

Count                          14                  8

Prior                         2.5                2.5

Capital Economics             2.7                2.6

Commerzbank                   2.7                N/A

Daiwa Capital Markets         2.6                2.6

Investec                      2.7                N/A

JP Morgan                     2.6                2.6

Lloyds TSB                    2.7                2.6

Natixis                       2.7                N/A

Nomura                        2.6                2.6

Oxford Economics              2.7                N/A

Pantheon                      2.7                N/A

RBC                           2.6                N/A

Scotia                        2.7                N/A

Standard Chartered            N/A                2.5

Societe Generale              2.5                2.5

UniCredit                     2.6                2.6

     Meanwhile, January's ILO Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged

from its prior 3m figure of 4.4%. That said, six of the 17 analysts forecast did

think the jobless rate would reverse back to 4.3% in February. 

-----------------------------------

                                Jan

                                ILO

                       Unemployment

                               rate

                               3m %

Date Out                     21-Mar

Median                          4.4

Forecast High                   4.4

Forecast Low                    4.3

Standard Deviation              0.0

Count                            17

Prior                           4.4

Barclays                        4.4

Berenberg                       4.3

Capital Economics               4.3

Commerzbank                     4.4

Daiwa Capital Markets           4.4

Investec                        4.4

JP Morgan                       4.4

Lloyds TSB                      4.3

Natixis                         4.4

Nomura                          4.4

Oxford Economics                4.4

Pantheon                        4.3

RBC                             4.4

Scotia                          4.3

Standard Chartered              4.4

Societe Generale                4.3

UniCredit                       4.4

     January's employment change from its prior 3m figure has analysts

pencilling in a slight fall from 88000 to 85000. 

----------------------------------------

                                     Jan

                       Employment Change

                                   3m/3m

                                   '000s

Date Out                          21-Mar

Median                              85.0

Forecast High                      140.0

Forecast Low                        60.0

Standard Deviation                  31.7

Count                                  5

Prior                               88.0

Capital Economics                   85.0

Daiwa Capital Markets              100.0

JP Morgan                           68.0

Lloyds TSB                         140.0

UniCredit                           60.0

     Some bounce back in retail sales in pencilled in for February.

Month-on-month growth in total sales is expected to increase by 0.4 percentage

points from 0.1% in January to 0.5% in February. Excluding petrol, sales volumes

are expected to have expanded by 0.7% m/m. The annual rates are broadly

unchanged from January's respective levels. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

                             Feb           Feb           Feb           Feb

                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales

                    Incl. Petrol  Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol

                           % MoM         % YoY         % MoM         % YoY

Date Out                  22-Mar        22-Mar        22-Mar        22-Mar

Median                       0.5           1.4           0.7           1.5

Forecast High                0.8           1.7           1.0           1.9

Forecast Low                 0.2           1.3           0.4           1.2

Standard Deviation           0.2           0.2           0.2           0.3

Count                          8             5             5             5

Prior                        0.1           1.6           0.1           1.5

Credit Suisse                0.5           1.4           N/A           N/A

Commerzbank                  0.6           N/A           N/A           N/A

Investec                     0.7           1.7           0.7           1.6

Lloyds TSB                   0.5           1.5           0.6           1.5

Natixis                      0.3           1.3           N/A           N/A

Nomura                       N/A           N/A           0.4           1.3

Oxford Economics             0.3           1.3           N/A           N/A

Pantheon                     0.2           N/A           N/A           N/A

Standard Chartered           N/A           N/A           N/A           1.2

Societe Generale             N/A           N/A           1.0           1.9

UniCredit                    0.8           N/A           0.8           N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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