UPDATE: MNI UK Data Forecasts - December UK Inflation

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - UK inflation is seen receding away from the

five-and-a-half-year high recorded in November to 3.0% and back within the Bank

of England's inflation target remit, according to a survey of analysts. Core

inflation is also seen easing by 0.1 percentage point, to 2.6%, while RPI is

seen unchanged at 3.9%.

     Of particular focus will be air fares and sales of recreational goods,

which largely pushed CPI up to the highest level since March 2012 in November.

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                          Dec     Dec       Dec     Dec     Dec

                          CPI     CPI  Core CPI     RPI     RPI

                        % MoM   % YoY     % YoY   % MoM   % YoY

Date Out               16-Jan  16-Jan    16-Jan  16-Jan  16-Jan

Median                    0.4     3.0       2.6     0.6     3.9

High                      0.5     3.1       2.8     0.8     4.0

Low                       0.2     2.9       2.4     0.5     3.8

Standard Deviation        0.1     0.1       0.1     0.1     0.1

Count                       8      16        11       7       8

Prior                     0.3     3.1       2.7     0.2     3.9

Barclays                  0.4     3.0       2.5     0.8     4.0

Berenberg                 N/A     3.1       2.7     N/A     N/A

Capital Economics         0.2     2.9       2.4     0.6     3.9

Credit Suisse             N/A     2.9       2.5     N/A     N/A

Commerzbank               N/A     3.0       N/A     N/A     N/A

Daiwa Capital Markets     N/A     3.0       2.6     N/A     N/A

Investec                  0.4     3.0       2.6     0.5     3.8

JP Morgan                 N/A     3.0       2.6     N/A     3.9

Lloyds TSB                0.4     3.0       2.6     0.6     3.9

Natixis                   0.5     3.0       2.6     N/A     N/A

Nomura                    0.2     2.9       N/A     0.5     3.8

Nordea                    N/A     3.0       N/A     N/A     N/A

Oxford Economics          0.3     3.1       N/A     0.7     3.9

Pantheon                  N/A     2.9       N/A     N/A     N/A

Societe Generale          0.5     3.1       2.8     0.7     4.0

UniCredit                 N/A     3.0       2.6     N/A     N/A

     Input PPI is expected to have abated in November, after a month of better

health for sterling, although elevated fuel prices may offset this.

     Input PPI is seen falling from 7.3% y/y to 5.1% y/y. Despite this, there is

not expected to be any immediate pass through to Output PPI which is placed

level with November's 3.0% y/y showing.

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                    Dec      Dec       Dec       Dec           Dec           Dec

                    PPI      PPI       PPI       PPI      PPI Core      PPI Core

                  Input    Input    Output    Output        Output        Output

                  % MoM    % YoY     % MoM     % YoY         % MoM         % YoY

Date Out         16-Jan   16-Jan    16-Jan    16-Jan        16-Jan        16-Jan

Median              0.2      5.1       0.3       3.0           0.3           2.4

High                0.7      5.5       0.3       3.0           0.3           2.4

Low                -0.2      4.6       0.2       2.9           0.1           2.2

Standard

Deviation           0.3      0.4       0.1       0.1           0.1           0.1

Count                 6        5         6         5             3             3

Prior               1.8      7.3       0.3       3.0           0.2           2.2

Capital Econ        0.3      5.1       0.2       2.9           N/A           N/A

Investec           -0.2      4.6       0.3       3.0           0.1           2.2

Lloyds TSB          0.4      5.2       0.3       3.0           0.3           2.4

Nomura              0.0      4.8       0.3       3.0           0.3           2.4

Oxford Econ         0.7      5.5       0.2       2.9           N/A           N/A

Pantheon            0.0      N/A       0.2       N/A           N/A           N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]