UPDATE: UK Data F'casts: July CBI Dist. Trade Survey, GfK Dta

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 14:12 GMT Jul 24/10:12 EST Jul 24

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - The CBI Distributive Trades Survey will deliver the first

glimpse of how retail sales fared in the third quarter. 

     While the reported sales balance rose 10 points to +12 last month, boosted

by the particularly warm weather in June, this remains below the long run

average of +18 suggesting consumers' willingness to loosen the purse strings

remains muted. 

     Our poll suggests the improvement notched in June was probably not built

upon in July. Of the four analysts polled, two expect the balance to hold firm

at +10 while the other two foresee a two-point moderation to +8. Consequently,

this leaves the MNI median for the survey's headline measure at +9.

     It should also be noted the index measures activity in value terms, as

opposed to volume terms as in the official data, and thus is guilty of being

flattered by the marked rise in inflation.      

--------------------------------------------------

                                               Jul

                    CBI Distributive Trades Survey

                              Retail Sales Balance

                                                 %

Date Out                                    27-Jul

Median                                        9.00

Forecast High                                 10.0

Forecast Low                                   8.0

Standard Deviation                             1.2

Count                                            4

Prior                                         12.0

Capital Economics                              8.0

JP Morgan                                     10.0

Oxford Economics                              10.0

Pantheon                                       8.0

     Consumer sentiment plummeted last month with the GfK Consumer Confidence

Index falling five points to -10, the lowest level since last July immediately

after the UK delivered its vote to leave the European Union.

     All five components of the headline index deteriorated, with increased

pessimism surrounding perceptions of economic fortunes and household finances

reported. Of note, the survey's Major Purchase Index plunged eight points and

signaled a sharp decline in household spending appetites.

     July's survey will tell us whether this subdued outlook persisted and if

falling real incomes and the UK's lack of progress in its divorce proceedings

with the EU will have dented confidence further.

     Findings from an MNI survey suggest confidence likely eroded further in

July, with a one point drop to -11 penciled in. Of the eight analysts polled,

four expect a worsening in consumer sentiment versus two who think a slender

improvement is on the cards.  

-----------------------------

                          Jul

                          GfK

                     Consumer

                    Sentiment

Date Out               28-Jul

Median                  -11.0

Forecast High            -8.0

Forecast Low            -13.0

Standard Deviation        1.7

Count                       8

Prior                   -10.0

Berenberg               -11.0

Capital Economics        -8.0

Investec                -10.0

JP Morgan                -9.0

Lloyds TSB              -12.0

Morgan Stanley          -12.0

Oxford Economics        -10.0

Societe Generale        -13.0

     The CBI Distributive Trades Survey will be released on Thursday, July 27,

at 1000 GMT with the GfK Consumer Sentiment Survey out a day later a minute

after midnight. 

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]