UPDATE: UK Data Forecasts: June UK Labour Market Data

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - Falling to 4.5% in May, the UK unemployment rate hit a level

not seen since 1975. A month later, the chances of this feat being beaten

appears to stand at fifty-fifty, with just as many analysts expecting the rate

slipping to 4.4% as those who see it holding steady at 4.5%. 

     The updated MNI poll can be found below.

     Should Wednesday's data reveal the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in June

this would be the lowest level of joblessness in the UK since the three months

to June in 1975, a 42-year low. 

     Either way, the figures will almost certainly point to a continued

evaporation of labour market slack. That should, in theory, lead to inflationary

pressure on the wage front but this has so far been absent with real earnings

lingering in sub-zero territory instead.

     The general consensus is that this lack of movement is expected to have

carried forward into June. 

     Average wage growth, on both total and ex-bonus terms, are forecast to come

in unmoved from the level set in May. That is, for 1.8% 3m y/y growth in total

earnings and 2.0% 3m y/y growth in earnings ex-bonuses.

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                         Jun       Jun           Jun          June

                         AWE       AWE  Unemployment    Employment

                       Total  Ex-Bonus  ILO/LFS rate  Change 3m/3m

                    3m % YoY  3m % YoY          3m %         '000s

Date Out              16-Aug    16-Aug        16-Aug        16-Aug

Median                   1.8       2.0           4.5         101.5

Forecast High            1.9       2.1           4.5         200.0

Forecast Low             1.7       1.9           4.4          40.0

Standard Deviation       0.1       0.1           0.1          55.4

Count                     12        13            14             6

Prior                    1.8       2.0           4.5         175.0

Barclays                 1.9       2.0           4.5           N/A

Berenberg                N/A       2.1           4.5         100.0

Capital Economics        1.8       2.0           4.5         103.0

Credit Suisse            N/A       2.0           4.4           N/A

Commerzbank              1.9       N/A           4.5           N/A

Investec                 1.8       2.0           4.4           N/A

JP Morgan                1.8       2.0           4.4         200.0

Lloyds TSB               1.8       2.1           4.5          40.0

Morgan Stanley           1.8       2.0           4.5         112.0

Nomura                   1.8       1.9           4.4           N/A

Oxford Economics         1.7       1.9           4.4           N/A

RBC                      1.8       1.9           4.5           N/A

Scotia                   1.7       2.0           4.4          75.0

Societe Generale         1.7       1.9           4.4           N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]