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Upside Surprise in PPI Validates Expedited CBR Hiking Concerns

RUSSIA

PPI:

  • FEB. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 10.7% Y/Y; EST 8.9
  • FEB. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.5% M/M; EST 1.5%

Weekly CPI:

  • YEAR-TO-DATE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 1.8% THROUGH MARCH 15
  • CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.1% IN MARCH 10-15
  • Upside in PPI and CPI validating concerns liked to an expedited hiking cycle from the CBR
  • Markets currently pricing ~100bp of hikes in 2021 seems slightly overblown, given expectations for a strong dis-inflationary impulse in 2H21 underpinned by strong base effects
  • 2 successive reactive 25bp hikes in April/June seems more proportionate with the possibility of one final 25bp hike in 2021
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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