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Upside Surprise to CPI as Core Pressures Intensify

SWITZERLAND DATA
MNI (London)

SWISS FEB CPI +0.7% M/M (FCST +0.5%); JAN +0.6% M/M

SWISS FEB CPI +3.4% Y/Y (FCST +3.1%); JAN +3.3% Y/Y

  • Swiss CPI surprised to the upside in February, accelerating by 0.1pp to +3.4% y/y against consensus expectations of a 0.2pp slowdown. Prices increased by +0.7% m/m, 0.1pp above the January rate and again above expectations.
  • Flight costs, package holidays, accommodation, rents and petrol prices were all upwards drivers of Swiss prices in February, whilst heating oil and new car prices eased.
  • All up, goods prices rose by +0.5% m/m and services by +0.9% m/m, leaving core prices +0.8% m/m higher. This implied a 0.2pp uptick in annualised core inflation to +2.4% y/y.
  • Today's data will further underpin hawkish sentiment at the SNB, whereby a 50bp hike is largely anticipated for the March 23 meet.

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