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Upside Surprise to Q1 GDP, Consumption Remains Contractive
SWEDEN Q1 GDP +0.6% Q/Q (FCST +0.2%); Q4 -0.5% Q/Q
SWEDEN Q1 GDP +0.8% Y/Y (FCST +0.1%); Q4 -0.4%r Y/Y
- The Swedish economy advanced by +0.6% q/q in Q1, outpacing the initial estimate of a modest +0.2% q/q uptick and rebounding from the -0.5% q/q Q4 contraction.
- The upturn in GDP in Q1 was underpinned by higher inventories (contributing +0.6pp) and goods exports (+0.7pp).
- Q1 saw household consumption decreased for a third quarter running, underscoring that domestic demand remains pressured. Household final consumption fell -1.2% q/q, representing a -0.5pp drag on the quarter, due to lower transport, food and non-resident consumption.
- Despite today's GDP report flagging continued weakness in consumption, persistently sticky inflation and Krona weakness concerns outweigh for the Riksbank at present, so markets will continue to look for another 25bp hike in June.
Source: Statistics Sweden
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