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Upward Terminal Hike Repricing As Dec ECB Edges Toward 75bp

STIR

Friday saw slightly more hawkish profiles for BoE and ECB rates over the cycle, with the ECB leading the way higher (we had noted last week that 75bp hike odds had likely been underestimated). Hawkish comments by ECB's Schnabel yesterday and Muller today are seen contributing.

  • Dec ECB hike pricing ticked up to 62bp, just under 50% chance of a 75bp hike. Terminal pricing rose around 4bp to 2.93% in Jul 2023.
  • BoE hike pricing for Dec was steady at 57bp, though terminal pricing picked up 4bp to 4.68% (Aug-Sep 2023) in sympathy with the global move.


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