Ursula von der Leyen`s candidacy......>

EU COMMISSION: Ursula von der Leyen`s candidacy for EC president will be voted

upon by the European Parliament at 1700UK/1800CET, will end about 2 hours later.

- Unicredit says confirmation is "likely but not a done deal"; needs 376 votes

for a majority (though Reuters says 374 due to assembly being 4 members short).

- The three largest groups in the EP (EPP, Socialists+Democrats, and Liberals)

have 442 votes between them. Von der Leyen is a member of EPP and probably has

most of their support, and Liberals likely to approve, though S&D more difficult

to predict.

- Citi warn of what might happen if she fails to be approved. It:

- "1) would throw the EU changeover process into chaos

-  2) would add to political strains in Germany, including risk of snap election

-  3) could jeopardize the appointment of Lagarde to the ECB as all the top jobs

were decided as a package. That would reignite concerns over the ECB transition

and blur the outlook for easy policy, but it seems most likely that Lagarde at

the ECB will stick, even if today's vote fails."