US Banks On BSP Post Yesterday's On Hold Outcome

J.P Morgan and Goldman Sachs don't expect BSP cuts to start in the first half of next year, see below for more details.

J.P. Morgan: "BSP to stand pat through 1H24; potential easing only in 2H24 – Barring additional price shocks, the central bank appears ready to maintain current policy settings “to allow inflation expectations to settle more firmly within the target range.” Our projections show a fair degree of volatility in CPI prints through mid-2024 before base effects and weaker sequential momentum deliver consistent disinflation toward the upper bound of the 2%-4% target range in 4Q24. As such, we think that the BSP will stand pat through 1H24, before easing 50bp in 2H24."

Goldman Sachs: "In the forward guidance, the MB reiterate the need to keep the monetary policy setting "sufficiently tight" and "remains ready to adjust monetary policy setting as necessary". Going forward, given the easing external price pressure and easing domestic prices, we continue to expect the BSP to keep its policy rate unchanged in the first half of 2024. The schedule for BSP meeting in 2024 is not yet released but the next BSP meeting will likely be in February 2024."