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US Beveridge and Phillips Curves Still Far Steeper Than In Canada [2/3]

MACRO ANALYSIS
  • The more pronounced climb in the Canadian unemployment rate, combined with a sizeable drop in the vacancy rate suggests the Canadian Beveridge curve is more firmly back on pre-pandemic slopes.
  • That’s in contrast to the US which only just looks to be exiting the vertical section seen for some years when the unemployment rate was below 4% (ticked up to 4.05% in June, above the FOMC median forecast of 4.0% for end-2024).
  • Similarly, the Canadian Phillips curve has flattened compared to the still far steeper US equivalent.

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