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Free AccessUS Cr Mkt Week Ahead: Early Tsy Auct, Cons Conf, PCE Infl, PMI
CHICAGO (MNI) - US markets resume Tuesday following extended Memorial Day
holiday weekend, focus on May Conference Board consumer confidence Tuesday, Q1
GDP second estimate on Thursday, April personal income and current dollar PCE
data Friday along with MNI Chicago PMI report for May.
Fed speaker engagements are rather limited (next blackout period is June 8-20,
FOMC on June 18-19 that includes Summary of Economic Projections.
Late Tuesday evening, US Federal Reserve Bank Vice President Simon Potter will
deliver keynote remarks at the APAC Benchmark Regulation and Migration
Conference in Hong Kong about the "Transition Away from LIBOR".
Fed Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida will discuss "Sustaining Maximum Employment
and Price Stability" at the Economic Club of New York Signature Luncheon in New
York Wednesday.
At separate events Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic moderates at
the Hope Global Forums 2019 Annual Meeting on "Assessing the Global Economy: An
Insider's Look" while New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams
discusses "Monetary Policy Theory and Practice and the Lower Bound on Interest
Rates" at a conference Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Money,
Credit and Banking.
U.S. Treasury auctions crammed into the first two days of business: 13- and 26W
bills staggered with 2- and 5Y notes on Tuesday, 2Y FRN and 7Y note auctions on
Wednesday.
Salient data highlights (estimates):
- Monday: US Markets Closed for Memorial Day holiday
- Tuesday: FHFA Home Price and Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes; May Conference
Board consumer confidence; Dallas Fed manufacturing index.
Morgan Stanley economists estimate the Conference Board consumer confidence
index "to increase by 3.9 to 133.1 for May. This comes despite some slight
headwinds from a decline in stock prices in the survey period."
On the other hand, Deutsche Bank estimates May consumer confidence to decline to
125.0 vs. "129.2 previously. The survey-collection period for the Conference
Board index runs through the 18th of the month, and this could capture the
initial consumer reaction to the recent weakness in risk assets."
- Wednesday: Limited data with Redbook retail sales m/m; Richmond Fed Mfg and
Dallas Fed services indexes.
- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims; Q1 GDP second estimate; Apr advance goods
trade gap, wholesale & retail inventories; NAR pending home sales index; natural
gas and crude oil stocks.
Barclays economists "expect the nominal goods deficit to remain broadly
unchanged at $71.5bn in April, driven by similar declines in imports and
exports."
- Friday: April personal income and current dollar PCE data; ISM-Milwaukee Mfg
Index; MNI Chicago PMI report for May; Michigan sentiment index; St. Louis and
NY Fed Real GDP Nowcasts.
RBC on PCE inflation say the "evidence garnered from the April CPI suggests a
relatively soft PCE inflation print in the works. But note that the relevant PPI
inputs (which are in the health care sector) suggest the risk of a hotter PCE
than CPI is non-trivial - we think core PCE prices come in at a firmer 0.2%."
Nomura economists "forecast a modest 1.6pp decline to 51.0 in the Chicago PMI
during May despite upside surprises in the Philly Fed and Empire State surveys."
Nomura adds it's "more likely than not that the Chicago PMI will decline because
of the later survey period for the Chicago survey relative to the Philly and
Empire, suggesting more time for worsening trade tensions to seep into business
sentiment during the month."
Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):
27-May ---- US Markets Closed for Memorial Day holiday
28-May 0900 Mar FHFA Home Price Index (0.3%, --)
28-May 0900 Q1 FHFA Quarterly Home Prices (1.12%, --)
28-May 0900 Mar Case-Shiller Home Price Index (0.2, --)
28-May 1000 May Conference Board confidence (129.2, 130.0)
28-May 1030 May Dallas Fed manufacturing index (2.0, 7.0)
28-May 1130 US TSY $40B 2Y note auction (9128286V7)
28-May 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796SU4)
28-May 1300 US TSY $41B 5Y note auction (9128286W5)
28-May 1300 US TSY $36B 13W bill auction (912796SF7)
29-May 0700 24-May MBA Mortgage Applications (2.4%, --)
29-May 0855 25-May Redbook retail sales m/m (1.2%, --)
29-May 1000 May Richmond Fed Mfg Index (3, 7)
29-May 1030 May Dallas Fed services index (5.7, --)
29-May 1130 US TSY $18B 2Y FRN auction (9128286Q8)
29-May 1300 US TSY $32B 7Y note auction (9128286X3)
29-May 2110 US Fed VP Simon Potter, "Transition Away from LIBOR", APAC Benchmark
Regs and Migration Conf, Hong Kong.
30-May 0830 25-May jobless claims (211k, 215k)
30-May 0830 Q1 GDP (2nd) (3.2%, 3.1%)
30-May 0830 Q1 GDP Price Index (0.9%, 0.9%)
30-May 0830 Apr advance goods trade gap
30-May 0830 Apr advance wholesale inventories
30-May 0830 Apr advance retail inventories
30-May 1000 Apr NAR pending home sales index (105.8, --)
30-May 1030 24-May natural gas stocks w/w
30-May 1100 24-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w
30-May 1630 29-May Fed weekly securities holdings
31-May 0830 Apr personal income (0.1%, 0.3)
31-May 0830 Apr current dollar PCE (0.9%, 0.2)
31-May 0830 Apr core PCE price index (0.0%, 0.2)
31-May 0830 Apr total PCE price index (0.2%, --)
31-May 0900 May ISM-Milwaukee Mfg Index (55.04, --)
31-May 0945 May MNI Chicago PMI (52.6, 53.9)
31-May 1000 May Michigan sentiment index (f) (102.4, 102.0)
31-May 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (+2.80%, --)
31-May 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (+1.41%, --)
31-May 1200 NY Fed Pres John Williams, 50th Ann Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking conf: MonPol Theory and Practice / Lower Bound on Int Rates", NY
31-May 1500 Apr farm prices
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.