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Free AccessMNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, November 26
MNI BRiEF: Riksbank Puts Neutral Rate In 1.5 To 3.0% Range
US Cr Mkt Week Ahead: Focus On Midweek Retail Sales, IP, Cap-U
CHICAGO (MNI) - The week ahead focus is largely on Wednesday with April
retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization and May Empire
Manufacturing Index.
Multiple Fed speakers expected throughout the week with NY Fed Pres
Williams and VC Richard Clarida making several morning through afternoon
appearances on Friday. Of note, Bloomberg reported the "White House is
considering conservative economist Judy Shelton to fill one of the two vacancies
on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors."
U.S. Treasury auctions limited to 13- and 26W bills on Monday.
Salient data highlights (estimates):
- Monday: May NY Fed expectations survey.
- Tuesday: April imports/exports price indexes; Redbook retail sales m/m.
Nomura economists posit "total import prices likely rose strongly driven by
an expected sharp increase in energy related goods prices. Excluding petroleum,
we expect a soft reading. The ongoing strength of the dollar is likely to
continue to exert downward pressure on import prices."
- Wednesday: April retail sales; May Empire Manufacturing Index; April
industrial production/capacity utilization; March business inventories; May NAHB
home builder index; TICS data later in the afternoon.
Morgan Stanley's retail sales tracker "points to a strong pace of consumer
spending at the start of 2Q19. We forecast a 0.5%M gain in core retail sales in
April on top of a 1.0%M jump in March. This compares to a projected 0.2% gain in
headline retail sales after sales soared 1.6% in March. Excluding the sharp drop
in autos, sales should rise by a much stronger 0.9%."
RBS Natwest economists estimate headline retail sales figure "may have been
flat (0.0%) in April. Unit light vehicle sales fell by 5.8% last month,
reversing most (but not all) of March's 6.5% gain, which likely dragged auto
dealers' receipts last month."
- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims; Apr housing starts and building permits; May
NY Fed Business Leaders Index and Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index.
Mizuho sees April housing starts climbing to 6.2 from -0.3 prior in it's
latest survey, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 10.0 vs. 8.5 prior.
Credit Suisse expects to see a "small increase in single-family housing
starts in April (1200k), but building permits data suggest a limited rebound.
Multifamily starts should increase more visibly, as the gap between starts and
permits has widened in recent months."
- Friday: May Michigan sentiment index; Q1 e-commerce retail sales; Q1 Advance
NSA Service Revenue; Apr BLS state payrolls; Apr leading indicators.
Credit Suisse expects consumer sentiment to "decline to 96.5 from 97.2. The
sell-off in the stock market and sharp decline in vehicle sales suggest
sentiment may be falling slightly. If the US/China trade negotiations break down
and the US stock market falls sharply, we'd expect to see a larger decline in
consumer sentiment."
Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):
13-May 0905 Boston Fed Pres Eric Rosengren, Fed Policymaking conf
13-May 0910 Fed Brd VC Richard Clarida, Fed Policymaking conf
13-May 1100 May NY Fed expectations survey
13-May 1130 US TSY $39B 13W bill auction (912796QV4)
13-May 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796SS9)
14-May 0600 Apr NFIB Small Business Index (101.8, --)
14-May 0830 Apr imports price index (0.6%, 0.8%)
14-May 0830 Apr exports price index (0.7%, --)
14-May 0855 11-May Redbook retail sales m/m (1.3%, --)
14-May 1245 KC Fed Pres George, on economy, MN
15-May 0700 10-May MBA Mortgage Applications
15-May 0830 Apr retail sales (1.6%, 0.2)
15-May 0830 Apr retail sales ex. motor vehicle (1.2%, 0.7%)
15-May 0830 Apr retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (0.9%, --)
15-May 0830 May Empire Manufacturing Index (10.1, 8.0)
15-May 0915 Apr industrial production (-0.1%, 0.0%)
15-May 0915 Apr capacity utilization (78.8%, 78.7%)
15-May 1000 Mar business inventories (0.3%, 0.0%)
15-May 1000 May NAHB home builder index (63.0, --)
15-May 1000 May Atlanta Fed inflation
15-May 1030 10-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w
15-May 1600 Mar net TICS flows
15-May 1600 Mar long term TICS flows
16-May 0830 11-May jobless claims (228k, 220k)
16-May 0830 Apr housing starts (1.139M, 1.200M)
16-May 0830 Apr building permits (1.288M, 1.280M)
16-May 0830 May NY Fed Business Leaders Index
16-May 0830 May Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (8.5, 9.0)
16-May 1030 10-May natural gas stocks w/w
16-May 1205 Mn Fed Pres Neel Kashkari, mon/pol, economy
16-May 1630 15-May Fed weekly securities holdings
17-May 1000 May Michigan sentiment index (p) (97.2, 97.7)
17-May 1000 Q1 e-commerce retail sales
17-May 1000 Q1 Advance NSA Service Revenue
17-May 1000 Apr BLS state payrolls
17-May 1000 Apr leading indicators (0.4%, 0.2%)
17-May 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast
17-May 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast
17-May ---- NY Fed Pres Williams and VC Richard Clarida make several morning
through afternoon appearances
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.