US Cr Mkt Week Ahead: Focus On Midweek Retail Sales, IP, Cap-U

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 00:21 GMT May 13/20:21 EST May 12

     CHICAGO (MNI) - The week ahead focus is largely on Wednesday with April

retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization and May Empire

Manufacturing Index.

     Multiple Fed speakers expected throughout the week with NY Fed Pres

Williams and VC Richard Clarida making several morning through afternoon

appearances on Friday. Of note, Bloomberg reported the "White House is

considering conservative economist Judy Shelton to fill one of the two vacancies

on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors."

     U.S. Treasury auctions limited to 13- and 26W bills on Monday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: May NY Fed expectations survey.

- Tuesday: April imports/exports price indexes; Redbook retail sales m/m.

     Nomura economists posit "total import prices likely rose strongly driven by

an expected sharp increase in energy related goods prices. Excluding petroleum,

we expect a soft reading. The ongoing strength of the dollar is likely to

continue to exert downward pressure on import prices."

- Wednesday: April retail sales; May Empire Manufacturing Index; April

industrial production/capacity utilization; March business inventories; May NAHB

home builder index; TICS data later in the afternoon.

     Morgan Stanley's retail sales tracker "points to a strong pace of consumer

spending at the start of 2Q19. We forecast a 0.5%M gain in core retail sales in

April on top of a 1.0%M jump in March. This compares to a projected 0.2% gain in

headline retail sales after sales soared 1.6% in March. Excluding the sharp drop

in autos, sales should rise by a much stronger 0.9%."

     RBS Natwest economists estimate headline retail sales figure "may have been

flat (0.0%) in April. Unit light vehicle sales fell by 5.8% last month,

reversing most (but not all) of March's 6.5% gain, which likely dragged auto

dealers' receipts last month."

- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims; Apr housing starts and building permits; May

NY Fed Business Leaders Index and Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index.

     Mizuho sees April housing starts climbing to 6.2 from -0.3 prior in it's

latest survey, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 10.0 vs. 8.5 prior.

     Credit Suisse expects to see a "small increase in single-family housing

starts in April (1200k), but building permits data suggest a limited rebound.

Multifamily starts should increase more visibly, as the gap between starts and

permits has widened in recent months."

- Friday: May Michigan sentiment index; Q1 e-commerce retail sales; Q1 Advance

NSA Service Revenue; Apr BLS state payrolls; Apr leading indicators. 

     Credit Suisse expects consumer sentiment to "decline to 96.5 from 97.2. The

sell-off in the stock market and sharp decline in vehicle sales suggest

sentiment may be falling slightly. If the US/China trade negotiations break down

and the US stock market falls sharply, we'd expect to see a larger decline in

consumer sentiment."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

13-May 0905 Boston Fed Pres Eric Rosengren, Fed Policymaking conf

13-May 0910 Fed Brd VC Richard Clarida, Fed Policymaking conf

13-May 1100 May NY Fed expectations survey

13-May 1130 US TSY $39B 13W bill auction (912796QV4)

13-May 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796SS9)

14-May 0600 Apr NFIB Small Business Index (101.8, --)

14-May 0830 Apr imports price index (0.6%, 0.8%)

14-May 0830 Apr exports price index (0.7%, --)

14-May 0855 11-May Redbook retail sales m/m (1.3%, --)

14-May 1245 KC Fed Pres George, on economy, MN

15-May 0700 10-May MBA Mortgage Applications

15-May 0830 Apr retail sales (1.6%, 0.2)

15-May 0830 Apr retail sales ex. motor vehicle (1.2%, 0.7%)

15-May 0830 Apr retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (0.9%, --)

15-May 0830 May Empire Manufacturing Index (10.1, 8.0)

15-May 0915 Apr industrial production (-0.1%, 0.0%)

15-May 0915 Apr capacity utilization (78.8%, 78.7%)

15-May 1000 Mar business inventories (0.3%, 0.0%)

15-May 1000 May NAHB home builder index (63.0, --)

15-May 1000 May Atlanta Fed inflation

15-May 1030 10-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

15-May 1600 Mar net TICS flows

15-May 1600 Mar long term TICS flows

16-May 0830 11-May jobless claims (228k, 220k)

16-May 0830 Apr housing starts (1.139M, 1.200M)

16-May 0830 Apr building permits (1.288M, 1.280M)

16-May 0830 May NY Fed Business Leaders Index

16-May 0830 May Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (8.5, 9.0)

16-May 1030 10-May natural gas stocks w/w

16-May 1205 Mn Fed Pres Neel Kashkari, mon/pol, economy

16-May 1630 15-May Fed weekly securities holdings

17-May 1000 May Michigan sentiment index (p) (97.2, 97.7)

17-May 1000 Q1 e-commerce retail sales

17-May 1000 Q1 Advance NSA Service Revenue

17-May 1000 Apr BLS state payrolls

17-May 1000 Apr leading indicators (0.4%, 0.2%)

17-May 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

17-May 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

17-May ---- NY Fed Pres Williams and VC Richard Clarida make several morning

through afternoon appearances 

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]