US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: BOC, ECB, RBA Policy Annc's; Feb NFP Fri

CHICAGO (MNI) - Another slow start for the week ahead but data and event risk

will ramp up quickly, culminating in the headline employment report for February

while Fed Chairman Powell will discuss MonPol Normalization and Review in

Stanford Friday evening.

Other key factors to keep an eye on are U.S./China trade headlines, and policy

announcements from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday and the

Reserve Bank of Australia on Friday.

ING economists said they will be listening "for more details on a potential

US/China trade deal that could lift some of the gloom surrounding the global

economy. Given this backdrop, we believe markets are being too pessimistic on

the outlook for policy in pricing the next move being a 25 basis point Fed rate

cut by summer 2021. Instead, we continue to favour a 25 basis point rate hike

later in the year."

Myriad Fed speakers this week include Boston Fed President Rosengren, Cleveland

Fed Pres Mester, New York Fed Pres Williams, New York Fed VP Potter, Fed Brd of

Govs' member Brainard, SF Fed Pres Daly, rounding out the week with Fed Chair

Powell late Friday.

U.S. Treasury auctions are limited to 13- and 26W bills on Monday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Feb ISM-NY current conditions and December construction spending (0.2%

est); 13- and 26W bill auctions.

Nomura economists said they "expect a modest improvement in construction

spending in December. The November report indicated ongoing weakness in private

construction of new housing and softness in private nonresidential construction.

This trend likely continued in December."

- Tuesday: March Redbook retail sales; February Markit Services Index; building

permits revision for February and new home sales for December (590k est);

February ISM Non-manufacturing Index (57.4); March IBD/TIPP Optimism Index.

Citi economists said they "expect that data will reaffirm that service-sector

activity remains solid, with the drag from the government shutdown in January

fading."

On new home sales, Nomura stated the "delayed December ... report will likely

show a sharp 10.2% m-o-m decline in new home sales to 590k saar."

- Wednesday: ADP private payrolls for February (+290k last); December trade

balance (-$57.0B); Mar help-wanted online ratio; Beige Book for upcoming FOMC.

Barclays economists expect trade balance "to have widened to $55.0bn in

December, from $49.3bn, driven mainly by a larger deficit on goods trade. We

already have the advance goods trade report in hand, which showed a widening of

the deficit by about $10.0bn, led by weak exports and solid import growth."

Nomura economists "expect ADP to show a 170k increase in private payroll

employment during the month...consistent with our forecast for the February

BLS employment report."

- Thursday: February Challenger layoff plans; weekly claims (225k est); Q4

non-farm productivity (f) (1.7%) and unit labor costs (1.8%); January consumer

credit ($16.8B).

Morgan Stanley economists "estimate that productivity grew at a 1.0%Q annualized

rate in the fourth quarter. For unit labor costs, we forecast growth of 2.3% Q/Q

annualized in the fourth quarter after a 1.2% gain in 3Q."

- Friday: February nonfarm payrolls (190k) and private payrolls (170k);

unemployment rate (3.9%) and average hourly earnings (0.3%); housing starts

(1.2m) and building permits (1.3m) for February.

Many dealers looking for a reversion to the mean after two consecutive blow-out

employment numbers. 

RBS economists "look for nonfarm payrolls to decelerate to about 200,000.

Nonfarm payroll growth has now come in at 200,000 or better in six of the last

nine months and three of the last four."

Nomura forecasts a "170k increase in February nonfarm payroll employment,"

adding that a "170k increase in NFP will remain above the level needed to absorb

new labor market entrants, putting downward pressure on the unemployment rate,

which we expect to decline 0.2pp to 3.8%."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

04-Mar 0945 Feb ISM-NY current conditions (63.4, --)

04-Mar 1000 Dec construction spending (0.8%, 0.2%)

04-Mar 1130 US TSY $48B 13W bill auction (912796RS0)

04-Mar 1130 US TSY $39B 26W bill auction (912796SG5)

05-Mar 0730 Bos Fed Pres Rosengren, current economic landscape, MA

05-Mar 0855 02-Mar Redbook retail sales m/m (-1.4%, --)

05-Mar 0900 Feb building permits revision

05-Mar 0945 Feb Markit Services Index (final) (56.2, --)

05-Mar 1000 Dec new home sales (657k, 590k)

05-Mar 1000 Feb ISM Non-manufacturing Index (56.7, 57.4)

05-Mar 1000 Mar IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (50.3, --)

05-Mar 1400 Feb Treasury budget balance (-$13.5B, $6.0B)

     06-Mar 0700 01-Mar MBA Mortgage Applications (5.3%, --)

06-Mar 0815 Feb ADP private payrolls (213k, --)

06-Mar 0830 Dec trade balance (-$49.3B, -$57.0B)

06-Mar 1000 Mar help-wanted online ratio

06-Mar 1030 01-Mar crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-8.65m bbl, --)

06-Mar 1200 Clev Fed Pres Mester, moderated Q&A, Columbus

06-Mar 1210 NY Fed Pres Williams, Economic Outlook: The 'New Normal', NY Q&A

06-Mar 1400 Beige Book for upcoming FOMC

06-Mar 1500 Feb Treasury STRIPS Holdings

     07-Mar 0730 Feb challenger layoff plans (18.6%, --)

07-Mar 0830 02-Mar jobless claims (225k, 225k)

07-Mar 0830 Q4 non-farm productivity (f) (2.3%, 1.7%)

07-Mar 0830 Q4 unit labor costs (f) (0.9%, 1.8%)

07-Mar 1030 01-Mar natural gas stocks w/w

07-Mar 1030 NY Fed VP Potter, Challenge/Opportunity Purchase Uncnvntnl Assets

07-Mar 1215 Fed Brd Gov mem Brainard, eco-outlook/mon-pol lecture 

07-Mar 1500 Jan consumer credit ($16.6B, $16.8B)

07-Mar 1630 06-Mar Fed weekly securities holdings

     08-Mar 0830 Feb nonfarm payrolls (304k, 190k)

08-Mar 0830 Feb private payrolls (296k, 170k)

08-Mar 0830 Feb unemployment rate (4.0%, 3.9%)

08-Mar 0830 Feb average hourly earnings (0.1%, 0.3%)

08-Mar 0830 Feb average workweek, all workers (34.5hrs, 34.5hrs)

08-Mar 0830 Feb housing starts (1.078m, 1.2m)

08-Mar 0830 Feb building permits (1.326m, 1.3m)

08-Mar 1000 SF Fed Pres Daly Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conf, DC

08-Mar 1100 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

08-Mar 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

08-Mar 2200 US Fed Chair Powell, MonPol Normalization & Review, Stanford Inst

for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) Economic Summit, Stanford, CA, Q&A

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]