US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: Employ Data Focus After Huge Feb Miss

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 00:34 GMT Apr 1/20:34 EST Mar 31

     CHICAGO (MNI) - A new quarter gets underway this week, folks eager to see

the latest employment data for March after last month's huge miss of only 20,000

job gains.

     Several Fed speakers are on tap in the week ahead with Atlanta Federal

Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank

President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday.

     New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams makes opening remarks

at a community bank conference early Thursday with Cleveland Federal Reserve

Bank President Loretta J. Mester and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President

Patrick Harker answering questions at separate event early afternoon.

     Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic returns Friday

afternoon to participate in a lecture and discussion on "Disruption and

Opportunity: Shaping Policy in a Digital World".

     U.S. Treasury auctions include 13- and 26W bills on Monday, 4- and 8W bills

on Thursday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: February retail sales; March final Markit Mfg Index; March ISM

Manufacturing Index; February construction spending and January business

inventories.

     TD Securities economists "look for a minor gain the ISM index as the

regional Fed surveys suggest manufacturing activity is holding up or may have

even recovered in March. Indeed, the average of the regional surveys registered

its first increase in four months to 54.2 in March. That said, across-the-board

weak global manufacturing PMIs increase the risk for a downside surprise."

     Morgan Stanley economists on ISM posit "regional Fed manufacturing surveys

suggest some improvement in March. Our forecast sees the ISM index rising 1.7

points in March to a reading of 55.9, not quite reversing last month's 2.4-point

drop."

- Tuesday: NA-made light vehicle sales for March throughout the session;

February durable goods new orders; Redbook retail sales; March ISM-NY current

conditions.

     On durables, Barclays economists "expect overall durable goods orders to

decline 2.5% m/m, mostly due to an outsized 7.5% m/m fall in the transportation

category as orders in the volatile non-defence aircraft segment fall back from

January's elevated level."

- Wednesday: March ADP private payrolls; March Markit Services Index; March ISM

Non-manufacturing Index; April help-wanted online ratio.

     Nomura economists said they remain "consistent" with their March BLS

employment report, they expect "ADP to show a 170k increase in private payroll

employment during the month."

- Thursday: Relative quiet ahead Friday's headline data, Thursday's session

includes March challenger layoff plans; weekly claims; March Treasury STRIPS

Holdings and Fed weekly securities holdings after the close.

- Friday: Nonfarm and private payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly

earnings for March; St. Louis and NY Fed GDP Nowcasts; February consumer credit

after the bell.

     Morgan Stanley economists "expect a normalization in March where we look

for net job gains of 153,000." MS expects average hourly earnings to "rise 0.2%,

lowering the year-over-year rate down to 3.3% from 3.4% in February" while the

unemployment rate should "remain at 3.8%."

     Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists expect job gains of 190k, they

note a "strong reading" from their private jobs tracker (292k) "suggests that

last month's slowdown in job gains may prove temporary and poses upside risk to

our official forecast."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

01-Apr 0830 Feb retail sales (0.2%, 0.3%)

01-Apr 0830 Feb retail sales ex. motor vehicle (0.9%, 0.4%)

01-Apr 0830 Feb retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (1.2%, 0.3%)

01-Apr 0945 Mar Markit Mfg Index (final) (52.5, 52.5)

01-Apr 1000 Feb construction spending (1.3%, -0.2%)

01-Apr 1000 Mar ISM Manufacturing Index (54.2, 54.5)

01-Apr 1000 Jan business inventories (0.6%, 0.4%)

01-Apr 1130 US TSY $45B 13W bill auction (912796RW1)

01-Apr 1130 US TSY $39B 26W bill auction (912796SL4)

02-Apr  -   Mar NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR 

02-Apr 0830 Feb durable goods new orders (0.4%, --)

02-Apr 0830 Feb durable new orders ex transport (-0.1%, --)

02-Apr 0855 30-Mar Redbook retail sales m/m (0.1%, --)

02-Apr 0910 NY Fed VP Michael Held, Regulatory Keynote Address, NY

02-Apr 0945 Mar ISM-NY current conditions (61.1, --)

03-Apr 0700 29-Mar MBA Mortgage Applications (8.9%, --)

03-Apr 0815 Mar ADP private payrolls (183k, --)

03-Apr 0830 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, American Banker Assn Washington Summit, D.C.

03-Apr 0945 Mar Markit Services Index (final) (54.8, --)

03-Apr 1000 Mar ISM Non-manufacturing Index (59.7, --)

03-Apr 1000 Apr help-wanted online ratio

03-Apr 1030 29-Mar crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (2.80m bbl, --)

03-Apr 1700 Mn Fed Pres Kashkari, town hall ND StU, Fargo, ND, audience Q&A.

04-Apr 0730 Mar challenger layoff plans (117.2%, --)

04-Apr 0830 30-Mar jobless claims (211k, --)

04-Apr 0900 NY Fed Pres Williams, Comm Bankers Conf, NY

04-Apr 1030 29-Mar natural gas stocks w/w

04-Apr 1130 US TSY 4W bill auction (912796VA4)

04-Apr 1130 US TSY 8W bill auction (912796VE6)

04-Apr 1300 Clev Fed Pres Mester, Ohio Banker's Day, Columbus, Ohio, Q&A

04-Apr 1500 Mar Treasury STRIPS Holdings

04-Apr 1630 03-Apr Fed weekly securities holdings

05-Apr 0830 Mar nonfarm payrolls (20k, --)

05-Apr 0830 Mar private payrolls (25k, --)

05-Apr 0830 Mar unemployment rate (3.8%, --)

05-Apr 0830 Mar average hourly earnings (0.4%, --)

05-Apr 0830 Mar average workweek, all workers (34.4hrs, --)

05-Apr 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

05-Apr 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

05-Apr 1500 Feb consumer credit ($17.0B, --)

05-Apr 1530 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, "Disruption and Opportunity: Shaping Policy in

a Digital World", Andrew Young School of Policy Studies/Fiscal Research Cntr at

Georgia St Univ, audience Q&A.

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]